TU-TESL

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At the end of another year. Looking back to 2019, new and old forces are facing each other, scientific and technological innovation accelerates the restructuring of the pattern, and the business ecosystem has undergone tremendous changes. The automobile home industry channel launched the special plan "year end chronicle 2019", in-depth interviews with news parties and phenomenon makers, to discuss the key topics affecting the fate of the industry, and to interpret the automobile China in progress. At the beginning of this series, we analyzed the marketing and service transformation of new retail. In this article, we will analyze the market application of new technologies. The new four modernizations are rampant, but the commercialization is faltering. Although the future color of black technology can arouse public reverie, enterprises still need to consider the utilitarian use of technology, and turn "science fiction film" into "outspoken". We selected ADAS (advanced driving assistance system), which is the most widely used system at present, as the research object. Based on the big data of automobile home, we analyzed the data of 163 brands in the current market (including the production and sale), with a total of 992 vehicle series and 7364 models, to show the application of ADAS in China's automobile market. Is it hard technology or fake demand? Is mass production far away? Can consumers buy it? One article tells you the answer. 30 seconds quick reading: 1. Among all the cars on sale, the adaptive cruise ACC has the highest market carrying rate, reaching 56.7%; the low-end models of 50000-100000 yuan also have corresponding ADAS configuration. 2. It is expected that the carrying capacity of L2 ADAS will exceed 800000 this year. From 2020, the ADAS market will usher in explosive growth. 3. The three decisive factors to boost the development of ADAS market are the rigid policy requirements, the product differentiation of the main engine factory and the consumers' favor for new technology. 4. ADAS technology has penetrated from high-end to middle and low-end markets, and new energy vehicles have more value of carrying ADAS. In addition, the rise of local suppliers will be one of the highlights of the explosive growth period of ADAS. Data Description: the data of the selected vehicle products in the market (including the production and sale) is up to October 2019; the data results presented represent the carrying rate of the ADAS subdivision function, rather than the market penetration rate; the relevant data corresponds to the number of vehicle models, not the market sales volume. L1 and L2 in the technical classification belong to ADAS category, but it is only an auxiliary driving technology. Broadly speaking, the functions that play the role of assistant driving can be regarded as ADAS, with more than 20 types. In this paper, the following eight categories are selected for analysis: BSD for blind area monitoring (also known as "parallel assist"), AEB / FCW for forward collision warning (due to special reasons of database, the two are classified into one category), LDW for lane departure warning, LKA for lane keeping, APS for automatic parking, baws for fatigue driving warning, ACC for adaptive cruise, 360 degree panoramic image. According to the latest research data of Roland Berger, "by 2030, China's intelligent driving market will reach 490 billion yuan." The main engine manufacturers predict that the carrying capacity of L2 ADAS will exceed 800000 vehicles this year. Supplier representatives are also optimistic, "by 2025, 80% of new cars will be equipped with ADAS." With such a bright future, what is the status quo? We use data to talk. 1. More than 50% of the models are equipped with adaptive cruise ACC, lane keeping LKA and automatic parking APS with the lowest carrying rate. According to the carrying rate of ADAS subdivision function of all models in sale, more than 5 of the 7364 models are equipped with adaptive cruise ACC, 360 degree panoramic image and automatic emergency brake AEB / forward collision warning FCW. The carrying rate of lane departure warning LDW is behind the first three. More than 1 / 3 of the models on sale are equipped with BSD and baws. Lane keeping LKA and automatic parking APS are the two types of configurations with the lowest carrying rate, only more than 20% of the models on sale have carrying capacity. 2. The ADAS configuration of RMB 500000-1 million model is the most abundant, and the low-end model of RMB 50000-100000 has corresponding configuration. According to the guide price dimension of all models on sale, the ADAS configuration of the high-end model with the price of RMB 500000-1 million is the most abundant, and users who consider purchasing products at this price do not need to worry about the low technology configuration. The ADAS configuration of 300000-500000 yuan models is also relatively rich, at least more than 30% of the vehicles on sale are equipped with these 8 types of ADAS functions. 100000-200000 yuan is the best-selling car price range. The car product ADAS carrying rate in this range is not particularly high, and it is also mostly reflected in high-end models. Users need to pay attention to the identification when purchasing cars. 100000 is a watershed. Although the vehicles in the range of 50000-100000 yuan also have corresponding ADAS configuration, the carrying rate is very low, which has a great relationship with the cost. In a word, it is more appropriate for the prospective car owners to raise the budget to more than 150000 yuan. 3. Since 2015, the carrying rate of ADAS has increased significantly. In view of the above ADAS functions, the carrying situation of all new vehicles on the market in 2006-2019 is analyzed. The data results show that before 2014, except for the fatigue warning baws and lane keeping LKA, several other configurations have been reflected in new cars, but the carrying rate is not high. Since 2015, the ADAS configuration of new cars on the market has been increasingly rich, and the carrying rate has been rising rapidly, which is more obvious after 2017. Despite the rapid increase of ADAS carrying rate, only less than 30% of the new vehicles on the market have been carried in 2019 (as of October). From the perspective of price distribution, most of the new vehicles on the market are concentrated in the range of 100000-150000 yuan, followed by 150000-200000 yuan, resulting in low overall ADAS carrying rate. This also reflects that ADAS market has a large market space. In the future, more and more new cars will be equipped with ADAS function, and users will have more choices when buying cars. According to the latest market research data of Roland Berger, it is estimated that by 2030, the scale of China's intelligent driving market will reach 490 billion yuan. It is reasonable to believe that ADAS may be an important support for a large market. The main reason is that ADAS has mature conditions both in technology and commercialization. In contrast, autopilot is not perfect in technology and regulations, and it is still far away to realize large-scale commercialization. "This year, the capacity of L2 class ADAS in China is expected to exceed 800000, with Chinese brands taking the majority of the share." He Jigang, general manager of Automobile Intelligent Research Institute, said that at present, L1 level ADAS is the main production force, and L2 level ADAS production peak will appear in the next 2-3 years. The demand for ADAS from the main engine manufacturer is quite clear, and the supplier has also made accurate market prediction based on this. 2018 is the first year of China's ADAS large-scale modulus production, and the market will show rapid growth in the next few years. Huang Luoyi, senior product manager of Bosch chassis control system in China, believes that "ADAS application trend will develop faster and faster, even faster than expected." In addition, Xing Xun, director of electronic and driving aid system engineering in ZF Asia Pacific, said that in 2020-2021, the ADAS market may usher in a blowout period, and the overall scale will increase significantly. It is reported that 40 ADAS projects cooperated by Bosch and local main engine plants have achieved mass production, and more than 200 projects are under implementation. According to Shi Zhengtang, vice president of Zhejiang Asia Pacific electromechanical Co., Ltd., the company has nearly 10 ADAS projects in testing and matching with the main engine plant this year, and will increase to 20 next year. Combined with the statements of the main engine manufacturers and suppliers, it is certain that the ADAS market will usher in high growth, but the ADAS configuration of specific models can be divided into high and low. Without considering the configuration level of ADAS, Shi Zhengtang predicts that 80% of new cars will be equipped with ADAS in 2025. In recent years, the global ADAS market has shown a high growth trend. As far as China is concerned, there are research reports that the market size of ADAS in China is about 11.7 billion yuan in 2015, and will exceed 100 billion yuan after 2020. The driving factors for the development of ADAS market mainly come from three aspects: policy, mainframe factory and consumers. As early as early as the early 2010's, major markets such as the European Union and the United States included the L1 ADAS function in NCAP or related technical standards. The 2018 version of C-NCAP raised the AEB score of automatic emergency braking to 11. In addition, according to the action plan for the development of the Internet of vehicles (ICV) industry issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology, by 2020, the carrying rate of China's new driving assistance system (L2) will reach more than 30%. At the same time, more and more OEMs also realize that carrying more abundant and advanced ADAS configuration will help to grasp future market opportunities and realize brand differentiation. The end consumer's cognition of ADAS is also gradually improved, and the consumer's personal preference affects the market trend. According to the big data survey of 7.5 million pre purchased car owners, more than 40% of car users pay attention to AEB and BSD when purchasing cars. More than 30% of users pay attention to adaptive cruise ACC, and another 20% pay attention to the configuration of fatigue driving warning baws and forward collision warning FCW. "In the early days, consumers didn't know much about ADAS. The domestic market was mainly driven by the main engine manufacturers, and most of them focused on the low-level auxiliary functions of L1," said Huang. Now, consumers, mainframe manufacturers and relevant policies are jointly driving the more intelligent L2 ADAS function to accelerate the promotion and application. " In the past, ADAS can be said to be a "sophisticated" technology, which is basically limited to the high-end car market. In recent years, one of the biggest characteristics of ADAS development is the gradual penetration from high-end to low-end market, and even some low-end models also carry some ADAS functions. This phenomenon occurs not only in China, but also in the international markets, including Europe, North America and Japan. The main reason is that the technology matures gradually and the product cost decreases. "Mg pilot" at present, Chinese brand car enterprises have great willingness to equip their products with ADAS. As a result, some Chinese brand models even have richer ADAS configurations than the mainstream joint ventures, such as boyue's high configuration version with standard blind area monitoring BSD and lane keeping LKA, which are not even available in Langyi. In addition, the loading rate of ADAS function on new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. According to data reports, in 2018, new energy vehicles accounted for nearly 70% of the domestic ADAS market share, while traditional fuel vehicles only accounted for about 30%. From the technical point of view, new energy vehicles are the ideal carrier of intelligent driving. , Xiaopeng, Weima and other domestic new energy vehicle enterprises have taken ADAS configuration as their product "cry", which is the advantage of new energy vehicle product attributes. "Intelligent driving technology is easier to achieve in new energy vehicles, and basically 60-70% of new energy vehicles will choose to carry ADAS," Shi said The rapid development of new energy vehicles will also be conducive to the further expansion of ADAS market. Taking advantage of this opportunity, Chinese local suppliers will be a key point in the rapid development of ADAS market. China's brand car companies began to assemble ADAS around 2013. At that time, almost all market shares were divided by international tier 1 suppliers, and there were few market opportunities for local suppliers. With the continuous development of technology and market, local ADAS manufacturers have begun to rise. In the past few years, although the domestic market was not large, most of ADAS products were supplied by international tier 1. Since this year, ADAS products provided by domestic suppliers have been gradually implemented. " Not long ago, horizon signed a strategic cooperation with fritec, a smart driving supplier, in order to seize the front loading and mass production opportunities of ADAS. Foreign enterprises have a strong control over the market. The products they supply to Chinese brand car enterprises are more "black boxes", and it is difficult for car enterprises to make more customized transformation on this basis. The signing of Frederick at horizon