TU-TESL

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In recent years, with the car market in a red sea and the dividend basically overdrawn, the majority of car enterprises began to look for the next "gold mine" with high growth. In addition to the hot new energy vehicles generated by the policy, they were regarded as the next market hot spot for a long time, and were placed high hopes by major engine plants. And a few years later, is the spring of MPV really coming? Let's review the current situation of MPV market and look forward to the future trend. 60s quick understanding of the core arguments: 1. China's MPV market structure and overseas market preferences are significantly different, there is a significant low-end and high-end polarization phenomenon, which are divided by Wuling and GL8 respectively, and the market space of the middle end and home market needs to be developed. 2. With the wave of consumption upgrading, the overall development of MPV tends to be high-end, low-end models such as Wuling have a significant negative growth, and medium and high-end models such as GL8 have a steady growth, but generally speaking, the demand for high-end business travel is limited, which is difficult to support the development and growth of the whole market segment. 3. At present, the domestic MPV market is still a false proposition, for example, the monthly sales volume of Odyssey, gl6, song and other models is only 2-4k, the market share is still very small, and the top brands such as, are also not optimistic about the domestic MPV market. 4. With the fuzzy development of product definition and boundary, as well as the trend of electric transformation of automobile industry, there may be some growth space for MPV models with cross-border modeling and hybrid or power. In the long run, domestic MPV market preference will be in line with that of developed countries. In fact, MPV market has formed a relatively complete market logic. In 2008, there was a case of "wulingshenche makes millions of sales" in Chinese market. In addition, GL8 has set up a benchmark position in the high-end commercial vehicle market. These two are successful product logic verified by historical sales, and also the objects that many latecomers want to imitate and challenge. As the segmentation markets represented by Wuling and GL8, in general, there are obvious differences in consumption preferences of MPV between Chinese market and overseas market. At present, domestic MPV has not been separated from the positioning of functional vehicles in essence. As the functional positioning of commercial oriented, customer and goods delivery, it is eaten and dried by GL8 and Wuling Hongguang at both ends. This is also determined by the current level of social and economic development in China, especially in the eyes of small-scale business owners and self-employed owners, Wuling is a god car for both passenger and goods, which is closely related to the feature that most business activities in China focus on low-cost competition. "Wuling Hongguang plus" and for other latecomers in the MPV market, whether they want to make a big cake or share a share, they need to take over the SUV baton as the main thrust of sales growth. They need to keep pace with the market positioning of the developed countries in Europe and the United States, and gradually enter the home market. At present, there is a widespread logic in the industry: first, the relaxation of the two child policy has given birth to the consumption demand brought by the expansion of a number of families, and seven MPVS are just in line; second, with the improvement of the economic level, middle-class families have increased the demand for more MPV models, both of which are solid household car logics, hoping to replicate the brilliance of SUV, but there is always a gap between the ideal and the reality, and the development of MPV Exhibition trend is no exception. 1. The increase and decrease of sales volume are higher than the industry average. There is a huge gap with SUV sales volume scale in 2012-2016. There was a period of high-speed growth in MPV market, with an annual compound growth rate of 18%. The growth rate of sales volume is far higher than the overall growth rate of the industry. The main growth momentum comes from low-cost MPV such as Wuling Hongguang. After 2017, with the macro-economic downturn, the passenger car market as a whole went down, while the proportion of new car purchase increased significantly, which made the terminal market show the characteristics of consumption upgrading. Therefore, the low-cost MPV represented by Wuling was greatly impacted, and it has achieved a drop of about 20% for three consecutive years, which is much higher than the overall market. From the market share observation of various vehicle types, it is found that the passenger vehicle market has been dominated by SUV since 2012. Its market share has been from 15% in 2012 to 42% in 2017, and the annual compound growth rate of sales has reached 34%. In these five years, the sales myth of Haval H6 has been born, as well as the following popular models of Chinese brands such as boyue, rx5, Chang'an cs75, etc. Although the growth rate tends to be stable after 2017, the share of SUV has remained above 40%. In contrast, MPV's performance is much more flat. Its market share peaked at 10% in 2016, and has been declining since then. By 2019, it has dropped to 6.6%. Compared with the 30%, 25% and 20% shares of Europe, Japan and South Korea, this achievement is really out of reach. MPV market is different from SUV in terms of volume and trend. It is very difficult to hope to achieve new sales growth momentum by mining MPV segments. 2. Market features: high end and low end are focused, and the middle end and home models are missing. As mentioned above, due to the functional positioning of China's MPV market, high-end and low-end models are clustered, and only two ends of MPV have a broad market, which respectively meet the demand of high-end business travel and dual-use passenger and freight. In 2016, the share below 80000 accounts for 80%, and the share above 200000 accounts for more than 80% Nearly 10%, while the range of 80000-200000 representing the largest market share of passenger vehicles only accounts for 10%. The middle end family MPV models are missing for a long time, and gradually improve after 2018. In addition to the fact that the domestic demand for MPV models in China is indeed weak, there are also some reasons for the manufacturers themselves. In the past few years, when the market was in a good way, we focused on the SUV models with large profits. We didn't pay enough attention to the MPV market, nor did we launch the truly competitive MPV products suitable for home use. From the market distribution of MPV in 2016, it can be seen that the top five enterprises in sales volume are all the enterprises that produce low-cost MPV models, and the phenomenon of product homogeneity is quite serious. Once the market starts to decline, this kind of products will be seriously affected by the impact of consumption upgrading. Three years later, in 2019, we can see that all the top five enterprises except Wuling and have disappeared. SAIC General Motors ranked second with GL8 sales and gl6 launch. BYD and GAC also ranked in the top five with the top five products song max, trumpchi Gm6 and gm8. It can be seen that during the market downturn, adhering to the idea of "mosquito legs are also meat", many enterprises also began to launch some household MPV products, and made some progress. 3. Development features: the low-end market is shrinking, and the high-end market is growing steadily. From the sales trend of MPV of various typical representative enterprises, we can see that the past brilliant enterprises are gradually going downhill. The typical ones are SAIC GM Wuling, Chang'an and other enterprises. The sales of MPV are nearly cut back. The Chinese market has gradually passed the era of price competition, and consumers' pursuit of product power is further improved Rise. SAIC General Motors, which launched gl6, and BYD GAC are catching up with each other gradually. The enterprises that are willing to explore the household market have achieved certain growth, but the increment provided is also very limited. In terms of models, the monthly sales volume is more obvious. Wuling and its series are the typical representatives of cost-effective competition. From 60000 in 2016, the sales volume fell to the current scale of 30000, almost halved. However, the sales volume of joint ventures, whether GM GL8 evergreen tree or Japanese Odyssey and other high-end MPV representative models, has been kept in a relatively stable range, but the overall sales performance can only be achieved The sales ceiling of the market segment is also very obvious. MPV is often heated by the media's voice. From the perspective of actual market performance and enterprise planning, it failed to fulfill people's high expectations, and even fell sharply for three years in a row. The so-called "SUV successor" may be even more untenable. The specific reasons for the market's decline are as follows: 1. Consumer upgrading's impact on the demand for low-end models As mentioned above, in fact, the domestic MPV market is dominated by low-end models below 100000. In recent years, with the increasing popularity of automobiles and the declining data of the age-appropriate car buyers, the proportion of the first car owners in new car sales is declining. According to the statistics, in 2016, nearly 50% of the new car buyers were added to the market, resulting in passive consumption upgrading. Imagine in a market where the main sales force is exchange purchase, such as Wuling Hongguang, the demand for dual-purpose MPV models for goods and passengers will obviously be greatly affected, which can not be solved by increasing the configuration or further highlighting the cost performance. Moreover, the rapid change of consumption trend makes this type of MPV manufacturers unable to adjust. In recent years, Wuling and other enterprises have encountered great difficulties It is inseparable from the change of the overall market environment. 2. The demand for high-end models is limited. In the long run, the commercial demand will gradually shrink. For the high-end MPV with a guiding price of more than 200000, the market capacity has remained stable for many years. Since the outbreak of GL8 in 2017 to 140000, the high-end market capacity has basically remained around 300000. This level of market segmentation can accommodate up to three MPV models, and with the following V-level, 2-Series, etc Localization, in the future, this market segment will only become more and more popular. Moreover, as the economic growth slows down and the trend of long-term low growth is irreversible, the demand for business travel will gradually decline in the future, which will eventually become the oligarch market of GL8's strong and constant strength; if new demand points cannot be found, the future pure commercial MPV market will gradually shrink, which is also unfavorable for GL8 in the long term, and for competitors who want to enter this market and challenge GL8 It is even more disadvantageous to say that blind planning of domestic projects may fall into the situation of negative sum game. 3. Domestic MPV market demand is still a false proposition. In addition to high and low markets, the industry generally believes that the hope of MPV growth is to position itself as a household market segment at a price of 100000-200000 yuan, which means that it must compete for food from the share of cars and SUVs. In recent years, many enterprises have also begun to attack this market. Since 2017, the new products on the market include Buick gl6, Geely Jiaji, GAC Gm6 and gm8, BYD song max, etc. relatively speaking, the market performance is mostly standard, and there are no more than expected models. Is there a market for home MPV? Perhaps from the above products of the main home market, this market segment is not as clear as expected. Even if the two car strategy is laid out, only Odyssey keeps at the level of 3000-4000 vehicles per month, while the average sales volume of Buick gl6 is only 2000 vehicles, which is less than a fraction of that of big brother GL8, and the previous unique BYD song Max also fell to 5000 vehicles per month Level, trumpchi Gm6 and Geely Jiaji are also struggling to find out with more than 3000 vehicles in a month. In addition, we should pay attention to the fact that VW entered the domestic MPV market, but did not choose to directly import xialang or redevelop touan. Instead, we developed a new medium and high-end MPV viloran for the Chinese market, deliberately chose to bypass the 150000-200000 home market, directly target the standard GL8, and directly focus on the higher-end MPV market. Behind this series of product strategies of mainstream joint venture brands, it seems that the current domestic household MPV market is a false proposition. "Buick GL8" is just like the touring car in the Chinese market, which is not as popular as that in Europe, and the pickup truck is not as popular as that in the United States. Because of the different market, consumption and national conditions, MPV is really difficult to impress consumers. In the hearts of many domestic consumers, MPV still has a strong sense of "tool", from micro noodles, vans, Wuling and other consistent