TU-TESL

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In December, the automobile industry has also reached the critical moment of annual inventory, planning for next year. The coming year 2020 will not only be the year when many car companies realize their ideals and goals, but also the year when the national 13th five year plan ends. As early as five years ago, or even earlier, the industry has made different prospects or forecasts for 2020. So, is there a big deviation in whether these prospects or forecasts can be realized in 2020? The Economic Daily China Economic Net Auto Channel has launched a series of reports on the end of the 13th five year plan since November 19. Today, we will take a look at the expectations of the industry's institutions for 2020 Auto industry twice, and how much more than the current industry's actual situation? In 2020, the overall scale of China's automobile market will reach 28.77 million vehicles. On October 15, 2015, China Automotive Technology Research Center predicted in 2015 information exchange and business development seminar that in the next few years, the average annual growth rate of the automobile market will be about 4%. By 2020, the overall scale of China's automobile market will be 28.77 million. However, the development of China's automobile market is not as smooth as this prediction. After reaching the threshold of 28 million vehicles for the first time in 2016, the domestic automobile production and sales volume in 2017 were 29.015 million and 28.879 million respectively, exceeding the expectation of 28.77 million vehicles in advance. However, in 2018, 27.8092 million cars were produced and 28.0806 million cars were sold, with a growth rate of - 4.16% and - 2.76% respectively; in the first 10 months of this year, 20.444 million cars and 20.652 million cars were produced and sold in China, with a decline of 10.4% and 9.7% compared with the same period of last year, with a further expansion of the decline. China Automobile Association recently said that without strong policy support and the implementation of market stimulating policies, it would be very optimistic that auto production and sales would decline by 5% in the whole year, that is, the highest annual sales volume would be 26.41 million vehicles and 26.68 million vehicles. Therefore, in 2020, if the overall scale of China's automobile market wants to achieve 28.77 million vehicles, the growth rate of production and sales needs to reach more than 10%. In May 2019, the joint research group of China Association of automobile industry and China Society of automotive engineering released "from data to market - new energy vehicle capacity, sales and market analysis in 2018". It is believed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.6-1.7 million in 2019 and 2 million in 2020. In the past few years, with the support of, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly. Since 2016, the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China has reached more than 50% for three consecutive years. However, with the end of June this year, the sales of new energy vehicles suffered a "four consecutive declines", and the decline is increasing. Data shows that in the first 10 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were only 983000 and 947000, with a cumulative growth rate of 11.7% and 10.1%. In July, CAAC lowered the target of new energy vehicles to 1.5 million, and pointed out at the data conference in September that only 1.3-1.4 million vehicles may be completed in the whole year According to Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, if the development of new energy is frustrated, it is ultimately the product problem, the safety and stability of the new energy, and the anxiety of consumers about the endurance of the new energy still have not been completely solved. In addition, the charging infrastructure is not perfect, and the reliability of products is not as good as that of fuel vehicles, which restrict the development of new energy vehicles. Even if the production and sales volume can reach 1.4 million this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million in 2020, and the growth rate will reach 42.85%, which is not a small challenge to the current new energy vehicle market. In 2014, PricewaterhouseCoopers autofacts predicted that the penetration rate of luxury cars (premium cars) in the Chinese market would exceed the average level of 10% in the mature market, reaching more than 3 million in 2020. At that time, the market share of luxury car brands in China continued to rise, and automakers continued to focus on China. With the development of domestic economy, the upgrading trend of automobile consumption is obvious, and the luxury car market has also achieved a counter trend growth in recent two years. According to the data, in 2018, the domestic luxury car market sold 2.7645 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.45%. In the first nine months of this year, 2.1 million luxury cars have been sold in total, and ABB has only achieved double-digit growth; second tier luxury brands have only achieved double-digit growth. Overall, the growth rate of luxury car market has slowed down. A number of market participants revealed that they remained cautious about the market outlook in the next few months. It is worth noting that since this year, luxury car brands have laid out electric vehicle market one after another. On November 8, EQC officially went on the market; e-tron also went on the market on November 18, which will undoubtedly inject new vitality into the luxury car market and provide new momentum for the realization of the market scale of 3 million luxury cars next year.