TU-TESL

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November 14-16, "2019 China Automobile Circulation Industry Annual Conference and Exposition" was held in Xiamen. On November 15, at the "2019 automobile tangible market investment and operation exchange conference and parallel automobile national six emission technology solutions seminar", Su Hui, executive vice president of tangible market branch of China Automobile Circulation Association, delivered a speech. His main points are as follows: 1. China's automobile market has entered the new normal of decline; 2. The replacement of old and new vehicles will become the most important goal of automobile marketing; 3 China's car market has entered a five-year period of deep adjustment. It is expected to return to the level of 30 million vehicles in 2023, and the gold nine silver ten formed over the years will become history; 4. In the future, 70% of the value of cars is not in manufacturing, but in service and travel. What I want to talk about today is the analysis of vehicle market in 2019 and the prediction of market in 2020, and I want to say some personal opinions. The first is the characteristics of the current automobile market. 2019 is very important. If we can't summarize 2019 well, 2020 and 2021 will be more difficult. The impact of the relevant policies of the second country on us, the analysis of the challenges faced by the third automobile market, and the conclusion is that in terms of the automobile market, the challenges in 2019 and 2020 are greater than the opportunities. Fourth, I would like to offer some suggestions on the opportunities and responses of the automobile market. The first one is about the analysis of the current characteristics of the automobile market. One is that the automobile market continues to decline without any sign of recovery. Experts from our association also said that it may last for three to five years. The second one is the new normal, not the high-speed growth. This is no longer a problem in the automobile industry or in the automobile manufacturing industry. It has become a history. The third is that in the past 28 years, China's car market and dealers have been living a very good life, which is also a reality. Now I don't know how to deal with the decline of the market. Because the impact of macro-economy is the most important part, not you can solve it with more efforts. In this state, the overall car market is the overall slow growth, all of which is the core melody, which is the view of the authorities. There are some big markets that do well, especially large groups, super large groups, or groups that influence this field, which may have a much better life than others. This is an objective existence, and the share is constantly converging to these enterprises and heads. When the overall market is flat, the share will continue to grow, and the share of the fuel market will continue to decline. Now the top academicians have published an article, and I strongly agree with one point of view. If any factory announces that the traditional gasoline car exits the historical stage, he thinks that this is a policy of national calamity and people's calamity. I am very agree with it. Now the country has adjusted. 2 In 019, the planned target for the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China is 1.5 million, which will be completed in a month and a few days, up to 1.2 million, and 1.5 million will not be completed. From the State Council to all ministries and commissions, the state fully supports new energy vehicles, which still cannot be completed, because it is very common that they can't be sold. You don't have to worry about it. I think now they are still It's too early. After 2020, 1.5 million vehicles in such a large country can't be completed. This is the actual situation. Fourth, we must pay attention to the fact that one of the biggest characteristics of the Chinese market, especially after entering 2019, is one-time purchase, which has dropped from 100% of new cars purchased 15 years ago to 20%, which is a historic turning point and must be adapted. Strong brands are getting more and more support from the market. Japanese cars have been growing slowly, not falling, not falling. For all the traditional cars, it's no good if you don't choose new energy cars. According to the situation of different places, because of different regions and cities, the market should seriously consider and research the scale of new energy development, instead of copying. The market downturn is comprehensive, including new car market, second-hand car market, auto parts market, auto supplies market and maintenance market. The impact of macro-economy is crucial. The more the government restricts real estate, the more people buy it, the more the state controls it. What can we do? Now it's too late to adapt. But a miracle has happened in Beijing, which has been declining for two years. Only in October, parallel imported cars soared, and the price of models must rise. This is the situation in Beijing. I don't know what else will happen. This situation is very complicated. The common people in big cities pay more and more attention to family harmony. The harmony between friends is reunited with their families. No one goes to see the car, and their interest is not in the car. This is the progress of family. The most important thing is to live better, not to develop better. If you live, you can develop better. What is gratifying is that our tangible market lives better. 2018 and 2019 are the most years for the automobile market industry to issue policies. Last year, 30 policies were issued, and so far this year, 245 policies have been issued. In addition, several policies jointly issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council require the cancellation of purchase restriction, which are jointly issued by the State Council of the CPC Central Committee. For example, several famous journalists in Beijing, the Central Committee and the State Council have jointly issued the cancellation of purchase restriction Limited purchase, how to prepare for Beijing? Beijing's answer is that we didn't study it. After he finished his study, one or two years later, he may not need to answer. It is said that Shanghai and Beijing are the same. Beijing's second-hand car is now 60% signed, which is the policy in place. 2019 is very important, because it is a node of China's automobile industry, which puts forward new challenges and opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of the automobile market. If we attach great importance to the transformation and upgrading, we must not be in a hurry to implement it steadily, and we must not beat our heads. Because the situation in various regions is different, there are state-owned, joint-stock, private, and blind Project transformation and upgrading. I'll give you an example. An auto parts dealer in Guangzhou, because the demand for auto parts is declining, the market is not good, and he has invested in a restaurant. The benefit is not very good. As a result, the following people gave him an idea to sell roast duck. Guangzhou people don't like to eat roast duck very much. In fact, we Beijingers seldom eat it. I eat one or two times a year. I buy 3401 roast duck One pig is enough. What to do if he still doesn't make money? In 2017, he thought of making rings in the park, two yuan for each circle, and then one for each circle. People in Guangzhou have fun and buy hundreds of yuan for each circle, so they make better money than those in the duck shop. Yesterday, I met a local boss, sun Tai. He now has a tourism project. He combines cars with tea. He does well and has good taste in cars. I think this transformation can be tried. For important information, I have listed several websites. To cooperate with these large groups, China has 4.5 million websites, which is one of them. A famous academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said that banning the sale of fuel oil would bring disaster to the people. He should be awarded a one ton gold prize. He dared to speak. It's not right to overtake on a curve. Chinese people don't buy cars now. Germany has been engaged in electric vehicle research 55 years ago. Up to now, Germany has not said how I did it. It's very difficult for Chinese people to overtake in a curve. With regard to fuel, now our country has repeatedly selected hydrogen energy batteries. After a while, is hydrogen energy so tense? If we sell you a hydrogen energy vehicle now, do you dare to use it? This is a time bomb. This is the revenue of each quarter from January to September. The last line is the negative growth of the auto parts industry. In the first three quarters, the net profit of each enterprise was - 3.3%. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting not long ago, saying that real estate should not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, so you must pay attention to this point of view, that is, you can't talk about real estate. Second, we all think that new energy is as easy as making electric cars, which is a big mistake. As a result, a large area of losses has been made by new forces of car building. There is no new force of car building in China worthy of investment, which may be a little too much. The third industry, real estate, such as government agencies and schools, has seven business opportunities. Fourth, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the strategy of building a strong transportation country. Fifth, we need to further optimize supply and promote stable consumption growth. I hope the leaders of the ministries and commissions said this morning that if we implement this strategy in half, our economic environment will be much better. For the first time in 60 years, the sixth national government has issued 68 articles on marketing environment. I suggest that car owners take a look at these 68 articles. The seventh is to actively cultivate new economic growth points. The eighth green consumption, automobile must contain this content. The ninth one is about refitting. The National People's Congress officially stated that document 4214 formally replied. This is the one written by the industry organizations about opening up and expanding the refitting of automobiles. For the tenth in-depth export of second-hand cars, there should be coordination between ministries and commissions. If it is not possible to support parallel import of cars here, the Ministry of environmental protection will impose a restriction. It is very important to change the distribution mode of several dealers and cars completely in 2020. By 2025, online sales will account for 25%. Influenced by many factors, the car market in 2020 is not optimistic. The blue sky defense war is a decision-making. In three or five years, there are only 200000 repair shops left. At present, there are 440000-450000. Half of them will withdraw from the stage of history. If new energy vehicles account for 10-20%, half of them will withdraw from the stage of history. If the new energy vehicles want to develop well and your maintenance volume needs to be less, the dealers must look for the authoritative operation mode. The last one is to introduce opportunities. I would like to make two suggestions. The first one is about the advantages and characteristics of the tangible market. We must think clearly, give full play to our main business, and the second one is to learn new four modernizations. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has started to learn about blockchain. I've seen blockchain for 11 months, and I still can't explain it clearly, but it will definitely affect China's economic market. The export policy of second-hand cars is not so optimistic. I also discussed it with Guangzhou Association. Most of the cars in our country are left-hand drivers. The British countries are right-hand ones, so it is not so simple.