TU-TESL

• 22

Under the background of the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, the "black swan" event in the upstream power battery industry occurs frequently. Beyond the general expectation of the market, the high proportion of medium and low-end production capacity can not meet the market demand, or will withdraw from the market competition because of the constantly compressed living space. This is also the inevitable result of the industry's transition from barbaric growth to high-quality development. On March 26, 2019, the notice on further improving the promotion and application finance of new energy vehicles issued by the four ministries and commissions of the central government, according to the new standard, June 26 is the watershed, because from this day on, the mileage threshold of passenger vehicles is raised from 150 km to 250 km, the maximum subsidy is reduced from 50000 yuan to 25000 yuan, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles is reduced from 22000 yuan to 10000 yuan. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell in response to the decline of "cliff" subsidies. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, from January to October this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 983000 and 947000 respectively, up 11.7% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively, but the monthly production and sales fell for four consecutive months since July. Fang Jianhua, chairman of the 4th International Summit on power battery application and partner and President of the new energy vehicle venture capital sub fund of the national science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund, pointed out that with the sharp decline of financial subsidies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of power battery decreased for four consecutive months, and the new energy vehicles may also have negative growth this year. At the same time of subsidizing decline, the Chinese government is also increasing its opening-up efforts, introducing foreign-funded enterprises into China, with multiple factors superimposed, the upstream, middle and downstream of the domestic industrial chain will usher in a deep "shuffle". In this "shuffle", as a key link in the new energy vehicle industry chain, the power battery is the first to bear the brunt. Recently, due to the problem of capital chain, bick power, an old domestic power battery enterprise, triggered a "chain thunder" in the A-share market. Dangsheng technology, new Zebang, as well as Hangke technology and rongbai technology, which just listed on the science and technology innovation board in July this year, have withdrawn bad debt reserves. Tianyancha information shows that there are 20 lawsuits involving the power of bik, and 23 lawsuits involving Zhengzhou bik, most of which are sales contract disputes. Watma, once a promising rookie in the industry, is on the verge of bankruptcy and liquidation recently. The situation of bike power and watma may be just a microcosm of the development of domestic power battery enterprises. With the gradual decline of heat, the disappearance of policy dividend, structural overcapacity, lack of cash flow and other situations, power battery enterprises are facing a new round of reshuffle. Mo Ke, founder and President of true lithium research, pointed out that some enterprises are "telling stories", misjudging the production and sales of new energy vehicles, and constantly "running horse and enclosure". This requires that the funds of enterprises can keep up. In fact, this is due to the delay of subsidies. So many enterprises are "walking the steel wire" in this situation. In case of any problem in any link, it may explode. Fang Jianhua said that this year, the power battery industry chain ushered in a "dark moment" and "black swan" flew everywhere. This is the inevitable result of the transition of industry development from barbaric growth in the past to high-quality development. However, the pressure impact caused by the reshuffle of various links of the industrial chain will be very large. The elimination of each power battery enterprise may bring billions of yuan of debt behind it, while the elimination of the whole vehicle factory may bring tens of billions of yuan of debt, involving the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain, which should be vigilant. In recent years, driven by the policy, China's new energy vehicles have made great progress. Data shows that China's new energy vehicles have been ranked first in the global market for four consecutive years. In 2018, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 2.01 million, and the Chinese market accounted for 1.053 million. In the first half of 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased at a high speed, with 614000 and 617000 vehicles completed respectively, a year-on-year growth of 48.5% and 49.6%, of which 493000 and 490000 are pure electric vehicles. Affected by this, the power battery industry in the upper reaches is also "working fast", and capital is entering the Bureau crazily. According to the statistics of China Machine Center certification data, during 2009-2018, the installed capacity of China's power battery increased from 0.028gwh to 57.04gwh, with a growth rate of more than 1000 times in ten years and a compound annual growth rate of 233.17%. However, the enthusiasm of the market has also lowered the threshold of the industry. A large number of manufacturers have swarmed into the market, and a high proportion of medium and low-end production capacity appears in the market, but this does not match the effective high demand in the market. In the past few years, he believed that the development of new energy vehicles in China was indeed a bit overheated with a lot of bubbles. The sudden change of the industry is also a good thing from a certain point of view, which will "wash out" the capital and enterprises that originally wanted to speculate. Liu Yanlong, Secretary General of China chemical and physical power industry association, said that the capital chain pressure of downstream new energy vehicle enterprises was transmitted upward, while the price of upstream materials remained high, the profit space of power battery enterprises was severely squeezed, and enterprises struggled to survive in the cracks. The survival pressure of power battery enterprises in the second and third tier teams was growing, and there was a risk of being eliminated at any time. Liu Yanlong introduced that in 2019, the concentration of China's power battery market will further improve. According to the statistics of the power battery application branch, from January to October 2018, there were about 89 power battery enterprises with installed data in China. From January to October this year, the number decreased to 29. Liang Rui, President of Xinwangda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd., believes that after a period of industrial integration, there will be about 10 global power battery enterprises, and there should be 5-6 in China. However, according to Mercer, China's market is very large, and the level of consumption is also very many, and the variety is very rich. For example, in some aspects of business, large battery factories may not be willing to do it, which requires the presence of other manufacturers. There should be more battery factories in the market with a very detailed level and a rich variety. According to its estimation, by 2025, China's new energy vehicle market may have a market share of about 1 / 3 for catl(). Panasonic, LG, SK and other foreign manufacturers may account for one third. Half of the other one-third of the market is likely to be occupied, and the other half is divided by other battery plants. Liu Yanlong said that the next few years will be a very difficult period for power battery enterprises. Power battery enterprises should put the quality and safety of their products first. The whole industry chain should cooperate to overcome difficulties. Leading enterprises should continue to grow and strengthen. Second and third tier enterprises should find their own positioning and occupy the corresponding market through product advantages. Liang Rui said that at present, the shipment volume of China's power battery enterprises seems to be larger than that of Japanese and Korean enterprises, but there is still a large gap with Japanese and Korean enterprises in terms of production technology, quality control, etc. Fang Jianhua believes that in the short term, the entry of foreign new energy vehicle enterprises and battery enterprises into China will bring greater pressure on China's independent brands, but in the long term, it will be conducive to the high-quality development of enterprises and promote high-quality enterprises to go abroad.