TU-TESL

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Since July this year, sales of new energy vehicles in China have declined for four consecutive months. Although this trend continues, it can be seen from the just concluded that the enthusiasm of automobile enterprises for new energy vehicles has not been weakened. In this auto show, a total of 182 new energy vehicles are on display at home and abroad, compared with 150 last year. Compared with last year's new car lineup, PHEV models have increased significantly this year, bringing a number of heavy-duty models, including the new A6L plug-in hybrid, Volvo S60 T8 plug-in hybrid, rx5 Max PHEV, EHS, wey vv7 GT PHEV, X (including plug-in hybrid and pure electric), DS9 PHEV, etc., which seems to be the most noticeable core bright spot in the auto show. However, PHEV model cluster appears, or represents a new tuyere is forming. Photo source: as we all know, under the guidance of national policies, China has been the largest country in the production and marketing of new energy vehicles in the world for four consecutive years, in which pure electric (EV) vehicles are growing rapidly with a three digit growth rate, while PHEV models do not account for a high proportion of the total new energy market. According to the latest data of China Automobile Industry Association, in October this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 75000, including 59000 EV and 16000 PHEV; from January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 947000, including 75000 EV and 196000 PHEV. However, according to Wang Yongqing, general manager of SAIC General Motors, in the first nine months of this year, only over 100000 EV models were sold to individual users, and the rest were put into the travel market. "EV vehicles are not the real needs of consumers, and the two problems of high cost and low residual value of second-hand electric vehicles cannot be solved, so the real needs are difficult to appear." On the other hand, in September this year, the Ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) paid more attention to the actual performance of enterprises rather than the achievements after deduction in the management measures of "double points" involving multiple clauses. Based on the model with 400 km endurance, EV model can only get 2.8 points under the new policy, half of which is lower than the old policy; PHEV model is reduced from 2 points to 1.6 points, and the gap between the points obtained by the two is greatly reduced. In addition, on November 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the "new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035)" (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"), which pointed out that in the next 15 years, ev models will become the mainstream, and it is expected that by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China will reach about 25%. 15 years, it's still a long way to go. There are still many problems for EV Models to achieve comprehensive popularization. Therefore, driven by multiple policies and market factors, PHEV, a new energy transition product, has returned to the vision of vehicle enterprises. In recent years, foreign brands have also frequently launched plug-in hybrid models, and Passat PHEV,,, and double engine E + are not to be underestimated. At this auto show, the major brands will spare no effort to release hybrid models. Obviously, foreign PHEV products are coming in a fierce way, and the heart of hunting for Chinese market is clear. Photo source: with the gradual fading of GAC Toyota, the self owned and foreign brand cars will enter the stage of parallel competition. The self owned brands that have already taken the lead in the development of new energy have yet to be discussed how much market they will occupy in the face of the foreign brand encirclement and suppression. At the same time, considering from another dimension, the growth drivers of plug-in hybrid models are mainly non market factors. For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the government not only subsidizes them, but also gives them the right of way, which greatly promotes their sales. Han Zhiyu, a professor at the school of automobile, Tongji University, once said publicly, "a lot of people buy PHEVs and drive them as fuel vehicles, which shows that they don't want to buy new energy vehicles, but for license plates and right of way. The right of way is a big driver to promote PHEV models. If the right of way is cancelled, the sales volume of PHEV models will be greatly affected. " For example, in Beijing and other places, although PHEV can be licensed with new energy license, it can not be purchased with new energy vehicle indicators, and it can not enjoy the preferential treatment of EV Models without restriction, nor can it get government subsidies from Beijing. In these places, the competitive advantage of PHEV is not as high as that of Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities. In addition, in the recent two years, the growth momentum of 48V light hybrid vehicle is quite rapid. Geyser Automobile Research Institute has predicted that in the next few years, the higher pressure of fuel consumption regulations will promote the gradual formation of production capacity layout of 48V technology parts suppliers. Driven by the launch of many new 48V technology automobile products represented by European brands, it is expected that in 2025, the global 48V technology matching scale of passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 14 million, while the Chinese market is expected to break through 6 million. In addition, with the decrease of power battery cost and the improvement of infrastructure in the future, ev models will return to the perspective of consumers, further squeezing the market of plug-in hybrid models. The domestic automobile market is standing at the "crossroads" of reform, and major automobile enterprises are stepping up the layout of new energy vehicles. For PHEV, it is also a relatively young segment. However, with the foreign brand PHEV model entering the Chinese market in a large scale, it will undoubtedly further promote the expansion of the power of plug-in hybrid models, and will also intensify the intensity of competition in this field. In the past 15 years, it seems to be far away but near. When the technical bottleneck of EV breaks through and when the infrastructure is laid will determine the length of PHEV's "flowering period". However, it cannot be denied that the spring belonging to PHEV is coming fast.