New energy subsidies set a threshold of 300000 yuan to force Tesla to cut prices and build new cars

Posted 2020-10-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC

More detailed rules on the postponement policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles were officially announced today, but there were many disputes immediately. Among them, the newly set model price should not exceed 300000 yuan, which is interpreted by some insiders as a forced price reduction of the star model 3. But Tesla, which also doesn't play by common sense, today announced on its official website that the price of the standard and long-term versions of model 3 will be increased by 4500 yuan and 5000 yuan respectively, and the price will be changed to 30355 yuan and 34405 yuan after subsidy. Perfect to avoid the bottom line of subsidies, quite disdain to enjoy subsidies. But in fact, there is a three-month transition period (April 23 July 22) if the implementation of the new subsidy policy in 2020 is taken into account. It will be understood that this is the market reaction of Tesla to enjoy the policy in the first time. Who else can calculate like Tesla? According to the regulations, during the transition period, for the vehicles that meet the requirements of technical indicators in 2019 but do not meet the requirements of technical indicators in 2020, a subsidy of 0.5 times of the corresponding standards in 2019 shall be applied; for the vehicles that meet the requirements of technical indicators in 2020, a subsidy of 2020 shall be applied. If we refer to the subsidy standard in 2019, the model 3 standard renewal upgrade can actually receive a subsidy of 2475000 yuan. Referring to the subsidy standard in 2020, the subsidy amount of this model is 2025000 yuan. The difference between the two subsidies is 4500 yuan. Similarly, with reference to the subsidy standard in 2019, the model 3 long-range version can actually receive a subsidy of 27500 yuan. With reference to the subsidy standard in 2020, the subsidy amount of the model is 22500 yuan. The difference between the two subsidies is 5000 yuan. That's how much the price of Tesla's two models is going up today. In today's launch of the price protection plan, EQC and ideal one said that by the end of the transition period, when the decline of subsidies will be borne by the enterprise, Tesla bucked the trend to increase prices, and its astute calculation will never reduce the performance of one cent of profits, which proved Tesla's strong confidence in its products. It can be predicted that after the end of the transition period on July 22, Tesla's price reduction will really come. However, the new policy of new energy subsidies, especially the subsidy limit of 300000 yuan, has had a great impact on different brands. Here we briefly review the notice on adjustment and improvement (CJ [2020] No. 86, hereinafter referred to as the notice) jointly issued by the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "four ministries and commissions") yesterday (April 23). According to the notice, the purchase of new energy vehicles expiring at the end of this year will be extended for two years to the end of 2022, with a gentle intensity and pace. At the same time, the price of new energy passenger vehicles before subsidies must be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan). In principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year. In order to avoid the problem of excessive pursuit of technical indicators and product safety, the subsidy policy will keep most of the threshold requirements of technical indicators unchanged in 2020, remain stable in principle from 2021 to 2022, and adjust appropriately according to the technological progress, industrial development, etc. For example, the power battery capacity density of passenger cars is no longer required to improve. However, certain requirements have been made for the endurance mileage. In 2019, when the endurance mileage reaches 250km, the subsidy will be obtained. In 2020, the subsidy threshold will be adjusted to 300km. After the implementation of the new subsidy standard, 162 thousand subsidies can be obtained for 300-400 km pure electric passenger vehicles, and 225 thousand subsidies can be obtained for more than 400 km, down 10% compared with 2019. Another thing worth noting is that the new subsidy standard regulates the upper limit of subsidy scale and product price. Since 2020, China has set a ceiling of about 2 million new energy vehicles to be promoted every year, accounting for about 8% of China's annual automobile sales. According to the Ministry of finance, it is an international practice to set a ceiling on the size of subsidies. The U.S. federal government stipulates that consumers will no longer enjoy the individual income tax credit after the car companies that have sold more than 200000 vehicles have completed the recession within one year. The UK, Germany and California set a cap on the total size of subsidy funds and adopted the first come, first served system. In terms of specific operation, according to the data of new energy vehicle licensing, when the annual sales volume is close to 2 million vehicles, the four ministries and commissions will issue a notice in advance to specify the adjustment time of subsidy standard. At the same time, the transition period is set aside for enterprises to ensure a stable market. In the past 2019, the key technologies of new energy vehicles in China have made remarkable progress and the product performance has improved significantly. The annual sales volume has increased from less than 500 in 2009 to 1.206 million in 2019, ranking the first in the world for five consecutive years. By novel coronavirus pneumonia, the number of new energy vehicles in China dropped by 4% in 2019 compared with the previous year. In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles dropped 56.4% in the 1-3 months from the same period. This time, the extension of the subsidy support policy is conducive to promoting the consumption of the automobile market and improving the comprehensive competitiveness. However, compared with the previous subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, this subsidy has also introduced a variety of new regulations. First of all, the most concerned consideration and specific operation method is to set a price limit of 300000 yuan. According to the notice, in order to avoid a large amount of subsidy funds flowing to luxury consumption and comprehensively consider factors such as China's consumer purchasing power level and industrial development, the policy requires that the price of new energy passenger vehicles before subsidy should be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan) ) In the specific implementation process, the four ministries and commissions will take the total amount of price and tax in the unified invoice for motor vehicle sales, as well as the official guide price of the product and other information as the reference basis. The relevant departments will include this into the scope of new energy vehicle subsidy settlement and verification, and those enterprises that operate in violation of regulations to obtain subsidies will be seriously dealt with in accordance with relevant regulations. It is worth noting that in order to encourage the innovation and development of new business models such as "power exchange", the price limit of 300000 yuan is not implemented for new energy vehicle products adopting the "power exchange" model. Although the four ministries and commissions did not explain the reasons for restricting the exclusion of "power change" models, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, once made it clear that "charging and" power change "are the energy supply modes of new energy vehicles, and they are not antagonistic. They have their own advantages and characteristics, so we should encourage all kinds of new energy vehicle power supply modes, including charging and" power change ", to develop together and constantly improve new energy vehicles The ease of use of energy vehicles. " At present, there are not many new energy models with a price of 300000-400000 yuan before the subsidy, including ideal one, Tesla Model 3, Weilai es8 and other brand models. Wei Lai is an enterprise worthy of attention. As the only enterprise whose sales price is more than 300000 yuan, which is not affected by the subsidy, Qin Lihong of Weilai automobile said in the circle of friends, "as an enterprise whose sales price of all series of models is more than 300000 yuan and all of them support the" power exchange mode ", Weilai promised that users of vehicles on the premise of May 31, 2020 can enjoy the subsidy according to the national subsidy standard in 2019, and the difference will be borne by Weilai. The state's recognition of the power exchange mode and the affirmation of the separation of vehicle and electricity are the major advantages for the further development of the electric vehicle industry. " In the same way, ideal cars, which are affected by new forces in China, are sold for 328000 yuan after being subsidized by ideal one, according to its official website. In response, the microblog said, "the quasi consumers of ideal cars need not worry. We will bear the part of the decrease in subsidies, and the user's hand in price will not change." He also said, "the threshold of 300000 is estimated to be designed to limit Tesla, but it gives Tesla the reason and necessity to reduce the price. The standard version can bring the price to 300000, and the subsidy is more than 270000. Finally, the subsidy is given to Tesla, and the price drop will hit the domestic cars with a price of 200000-400000. Such a simple variable is easy to calculate. " In addition, the second new car, Xiaopeng P7, will soon be launched as a member of the new force's car building. As an independent luxury car, the price of Xiaopeng P7 high-end model will exceed 300000 yuan. "The notice was issued on the eve of the 4.27 press conference, which basically has no impact on Xiaopeng P7. On the contrary, the clearer three-year policy is more beneficial to us, and on the contrary, it is good for the business system of Xiaopeng P7 and smart car. The software as a service system will have a greater impact on the pure hardware model, which is our always thought. The core of smart car is operation." "Tesla's gross margin in China is 30%, fully able to adapt to new changes, but it will pose greater challenges to some joint ventures and new EVs of high-end brands," he added He judged that "probably after the subsidy for the long-range version of the domestic model 3 in this year, it will be reduced to 277500, which is 61500 lower than the current price of 339000, close to last year when I said that the price of the domestic Tesla can be reduced by another 10000 dollars. At this price, the competitive pressure of electric vehicles with the original price of 150000-400000 will only increase significantly and will not shrink. Everyone should be prepared, but it is good for customers and market cake. " In addition to Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng automobile, Tesla has become the focus of the discussion. According to Zhong Shi, chief editor of Zhijia, "Tesla's original intention of setting the retail price in the market was to really follow the market-oriented Road, not go for financial subsidies, so the pricing did not deliberately cater to the threshold value of subsidies. Second, Tesla is extremely confident in its own brand, so it can implement the pricing strategy of "go your own way". Tesla has been familiar with the psychology of Chinese user groups. Such users will not choose Tesla products because of the amount of subsidies. Less than 2% of the increase is insignificant to such users. " As mentioned above, the new energy subsidy has a three-month transition period, which leaves enough room for Tesla to adjust its price. At present, the gross profit rate of model 3 can reach 30%. After the transition period, Tesla is fully capable of adjusting its price to within 300000 yuan. Of course, Tesla can wait until model y is officially listed, and Tesla will reduce the price of model 3 to within 300000 yuan. This round of "notice" not only increased the support for "power change" models, but also excluded more subsidy qualifications for short endurance low-end models through the endurance threshold. According to the notice, the requirements of 2020 subsidy standard for the endurance of pure electric passenger vehicles are 50 kilometers higher than that in 2019. Among them, there is no subsidy for models with a endurance of less than 300 km, 16200 yuan for models with a endurance of 300 (including) - 400 km, and 225 yuan for models with a endurance of more than 400 km. In the announcement, the four ministries and commissions explained that, "in recent years, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles adheres to the policy guidance of" supporting the good and supporting the strong ", and promotes the obvious progress of new energy vehicle technology through continuously improving the technical threshold and other measures. The driving range of pure electric passenger vehicles increased from an average of about 160 km in 2015 to an average of about 350 km in 2019." At present, some self owned and joint venture brand electric passenger vehicles do not meet the endurance mileage threshold required by the notice, such as running e-star (with a endurance of 260 km), - Volkswagen Bora pure electric (with a endurance of 270 km), Renault eno (with a endurance of 271 km), etc. 350 km limit for joint venture brands to meet the double point system, through oil to electricity to seek short-term pass decision-making psychology. In fact, the subsidy threshold of 300000 yuan makes foreign high-end electric vehicles lose the opportunity of policy support. Obviously, Benz EQC, e-tron and BMW ix3, which will be launched in China this year, will not be included in the subsidy. The ipace model and the taycan model will still not be encouraged in the Chinese market as luxury cars. Although some critics say that this part of brand consumers is not sensitive to the subsidy of tens of thousands of yuan, it means the loss of profits of manufacturers. This policy unintentionally divides new energy vehicles in China market into Tesla and joint venture products

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