TU-TESL

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The latest data is worth mentioning. It's about the sharing of new energy risks. First, put this data on the table. From January to October this year, the cumulative amount of new energy passenger vehicles insured was 713000, according to the traffic compulsory insurance data of CIRC. Among them, 371000 vehicles are owned by "individuals", accounting for 52% of the total; 135000 vehicles are owned by "units", accounting for 19%; another 207000 vehicles are owned by "unknown", accounting for 29%. In the past, the sales data we used to look at every month was the data of China Federation of new energy companies. Although the new energy sales volume has been declining for four consecutive months, and the decline is still expanding, the accumulated sales volume of the first 10 months shown by China Federation of new energy companies has been very considerable, with 844000, a year-on-year increase of 17%. This is another dimension of data. Next, I will share a friend circle of Autobots. Chairman he Xiaopeng's disassembly method is similar to the classification of jiaoqiang insurance. He wrote in the circle of friends: "take out the electric vehicle data of China's new energy vehicles, then the big customer data sold to taxis, travel, etc., and finally the actual sales price below 120000 mainly for the travel financial solutions. The remaining data sold to real consumers are only about 100000, which is almost the same as the sales volume in the first three quarters of the United States." These three dimensions together, from 844000 vehicles of the Federation of passenger transport to 713000 vehicles of Shanghai insurance, and then to more than 100000 vehicles in the mouth, the gap is staggering. The collision between the data immediately makes things confused. Obviously, the prosperity of the new energy vehicle market needs to be discounted. Come on, layer by layer. First of all, it's relatively easy to understand the difference from the travel association to the upper risk volume. The data of the association is reported by the manufacturers themselves. The data they display is the sales volume from the wholesale of manufacturers to the 4S shop, while the insurance volume is the car that is accurate to the car on the road. This data is obviously closer to the actual market state. Some car companies only this level, the quantity difference is very big. For example, for example, in 2018, the sales of new energy vehicles totaled 52000, but the amount of insurance coverage showed less than 900. Next, how many of the vehicles with strong traffic insurance, including operating and non operating vehicles, and the electric vehicles sold by the terminal, are used by private individuals? As we have seen above, private accounts for 52%. This statement is also supported by the data of China Federation of passenger transport. According to the data, the regional operation characteristics of new energy vehicles in 2019 are: Rental accounts for 30% and unit user accounts for 20%. Specific to some brands, in the first 10 months of the ranking of insurance volume of automobile enterprises, the top three are. By contrast, BYD has more private users, accounting for more than 70%. At that time, at a promotion meeting of BAIC new energy, bu Hongsheng, assistant general manager and executive deputy general manager of the marketing company, said that it was shocking that the purchase ratio of private, leasing and unit platforms was 3 to 7. A person who has been engaged in electric vehicle sales for many years and deeply immersed in the front line thinks highly of what he Xiaopeng said. From his words, the proportion of individual users of individual brands is even only 1 / 25. In addition, the proportion of private purchase of aion s is 40%. There are also many models we are familiar with, which are typical models purchased in the field of travel, such as, emgrand EV, series. In March this year, jingju.com purchased 10000 EU5 vehicles at a time, while the sales volume of BAIC new energy in that month was 17000. The epitome of these phenomena in life, directly or indirectly, confirms some conclusions of this paper. In fact, it has to be said that the sales data of the new force of car building is relatively "pure". Most of the car companies, such as Weima, Xiaopeng, are private buyers. On the other hand, how "lost" the sales performance of the new force of head car building can also reflect how "lost" the private electric market. In addition, there are many objective factors in private users that influence their decisions. It can be seen from the top ten cities of the upper insurance volume that the top six are all licensed cities, accounting for 80% of the top ten cities of the upper insurance volume. Even some private users who have bought new energy vehicles are also used to run special car drivers. From the perspective of penetration rate, as of the first half of this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China is about 3.44 million, the number of traditional fuel vehicles is 250 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is only less than 1.4%. Since China officially launched the "863" plan in 2001, the new energy vehicle industry has experienced nearly 20 years of development. The industry has experienced the strategic planning period from 2001 to 2008, the introduction period from 2009 to 2015, and the growth period from 2016 to now. Basically, we can feel that the time started in 2009 when new energy vehicles were purchased within the designated scope, and the era began. Since then, the sales volume of new energy has also increased from only 8159 in 2010 to 331000 in 2015, to 1256000 in 2018, with a compound growth rate of 87.5% in nine years. It seems that the effect is remarkable, but it is not so optimistic when it is stripped away. Just how Xiaopeng said, we often say that we need to be bigger and stronger, but just like net weight and gross weight, it's not good to hold the borrowed iron ball to weigh and rank. From a rational point of view, the new energy market, which has been driven by policy for more than ten years, has only been opened up by the private user market. How far is there to really activate the market? With the decline of subsidies and the stop of tuyeres, we may face a slower pace of progress.