TU-TESL

• 22

At the end of the year, it was the best stage for all the car companies to show their new models and technologies for the next year. New energy vehicles have also experienced a counter attack from corner gathering to occupying booth C. The new energy market supported by policy, after nearly six years of rapid development, including technology, market and industrial chain, has made great strides. However, since the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles on June 26, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been "four consecutive drops", and the decline is also growing. Facing the coming 2020, pure electric vehicles not only have to face the era of refund and compensation, but also have a direct dialogue with a large number of joint venture brand new energy models. According to statistics, there are 38 first departure vehicles of global brands, 10 first departure vehicles of multinational companies, 30 concept vehicles, including 17 international brands and 13 domestic brands, with a total number of 1050 vehicles. A total of 182 new energy vehicles were exhibited by domestic and foreign auto exhibitors, 70 of which were exhibited by foreign enterprises. Once upon a time, overtaking on a curve was almost the common slogan of new energy vehicle enterprises. At that time, domestic policies not only vigorously supported new energy models, but also vigorously guided the cultivation of the end market. New energy vehicles, especially models, have entered a period of self rapid development without the pressure of foreign competition. The national policy develops the new energy industry, but the annual new energy subsidy policy will imperceptibly guide the research and development direction of vehicle enterprises. For example, in the early stage of endurance guidance, density guidance and comprehensive power consumption guidance, the policy will guide vehicle enterprises to develop and accumulate new energy vehicle technologies in the right direction through subsidies. Up to now, including the mainstream, BAIC, SAIC, and other brands, and even some new power brands, in terms of electric drive system, they all have corresponding integrated, standardized and miniaturized technical reserves. A lighter and more efficient driving system can significantly reduce the comprehensive power consumption of vehicles and improve the range. At the same time, the benefits of integration and standardization are more than that. The main reduction of integration is precious metal materials, which can significantly reduce the comprehensive manufacturing cost. As the most expensive part of new energy vehicles, power battery is also a key project for many vehicle enterprises to accumulate technology and distinguish similar products. The power battery is the same as the fuel tank, the larger the volume, the farther the endurance. However, as capacity increases, so do costs and risks. For this reason, the domestic power battery pack has experienced from passive air cooling, active air cooling and active liquid cooling to the mainstream standard active intelligent temperature control system, and even has launched the all climate battery. Vehicle enterprises have accumulated their own experience in battery pack design and assembly research and development, while the battery industry chain is also developing and integrating rapidly. With the development of the industry chain, the battery technology is increasing and the comprehensive cost is decreasing. The more advantageous battery supplier can not only provide the battery unit, but also provide a complete set of battery solutions. BYD, which has its own battery and vehicle technology, reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Chang'an auto earlier. Now during the Guangzhou auto show, new models of Chang'an start to match the power battery provided by BYD. In this Guangzhou auto show, many imported brands and joint venture brands have appeared or listed new models. What models can impact the original domestic market situation? The new energy market is not the same as the fuel vehicle market. The existing domestic new energy market is mainly concentrated in the entry-level, compact and medium-sized market, and the terminal price range of the mainstream market is about 50000-200000. The main market share is concentrated in the entry or compact market, and the market above the middle and high end is basically blank. If high-end models enter the market, few domestic brands will be impacted. Therefore, in the domestic new energy market, the most feared models are not EQC, Audi e-tron and rutes evija, but the ID., Changxun and Kia K3, which impact the price range of 100000-200000. Take VW ID. family model as an example. At present, including SAIC Volkswagen and VW, the new MEB platform factory can form a relatively complete production capacity around 2020. Including MEB platform technology advantage, brand advantage and domestic price advantage, VW ID. family car has a strong foundation of competitive advantage in the terminal market, and its locked market scope and price range are likely to impact the inherent market pattern. The same is true for Chevy cruise on the same platform as micro blue. Through the gradual water test of Buick micro blue, GM group quickly adjusted the vehicle status, mainly focusing on the capacity, management, safety and other aspects of the power battery, and the upgraded terminal price did not significantly increase. As for the new force of car building, which is in the middle of independent upward and foreign investment downward exploration, next year may be more difficult. In the view of e-carway, the compact market that fuel market merchants must contend for is also the place where new energy models must contend for. At that time, there will be a situation of independent, joint venture and scuffle. Different from the fuel oil market, the independent brand of the scuffle is advantageous in both time and place. After six years of technical training, the independent brand has mastered the core three electricity technology, and has certain advantages. In particular, some domestic brands with "technology cost reduction" can not only quickly make up for their own market gaps, but also control the comprehensive cost as much as possible in the face of future shocks. Of course, years of industrial chain and market training is also one of the advantages of independent brands.