TU-TESL

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On November 11, data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that the production and sales of automobiles in October were 2.295 million and 2.284 million respectively, down 1.7% and 4% year on year. In the first 10 months, automobile production and sales reached 20.444 million and 20.652 million, down 10.4% and 9.7% year on year. The year-on-year decline in auto sales has narrowed and the market tends to be stable. "Due to the low base in the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in China's auto market is expected to narrow to about 8% this year, with annual sales of more than 26 million vehicles." On November 11, Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter. However, it is worth noting that in the past four months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen significantly more than expected. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 95000 and 75000 respectively, a year-on-year decline of 35.4% and 45.6%. In the first 10 months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles dropped to 983000 and 947000, with the growth rate falling to 11.7% and 10.2% respectively. "In the next two months, the sales base of new energy vehicles in the same period of last year is relatively high. According to the current development trend, the sales volume of new energy vehicles this year is likely to show negative growth." Assistant Secretary General Chen Shihua told reporters. Affected by this, it weakens the power of the end of the year growth of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles have been declining year on year for four consecutive months, and the decline is expanding. From the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles, we can clearly feel the impact of policy factors on the sales volume of new energy vehicles. In June this year, the new energy vehicle market ushered in the "Carnival" before the decline of subsidies. In that month, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached the highest point of 152000 this year. But since July, sales of new energy vehicles have fallen rapidly. 8. September and October saw a continuous month on month decline and the market continued to bottom out. In 2018, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively. The gap between the total sales volume in the first 10 months of this year and that of last year is about 300000, but the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the past 4 months has continued to be at the level of 70000-80000, and it is more difficult to increase significantly in November and December. This means that China's new energy vehicles will have a negative annual sales growth for the first time in 10 years. According to the target of new energy vehicle industrialization proposed in the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle industry (2012-2020), by 2020, the production capacity of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million. From the current development situation, it is difficult to achieve the goal of 2 million vehicles in 2020. "According to our original prediction, we thought that the number of new energy vehicles would reach 1.6 million, and we had enough confidence in the 2 million next year. However, it is not expected that the impact of this year's decline in subsidies will be so great. In the past two months, the decline is relatively serious. It is not clear whether it will recover in the next two months, but it is believed that it will return to a positive growth state next year. " Xu Haidong told the 21st century economic reporter. The decline in sales of new energy vehicles has also led to some pessimism about the future of new energy vehicles both inside and outside the industry and from all walks of life. However, according to Chen Shihua, from the impact on the production and marketing of new energy vehicles, we can see that China's new energy vehicle market is still in the primary stage of development. Compared with the market of 30 million vehicles, the market share is relatively small, and changes affected by policies are normal. "We cannot lose confidence in the overall development of new energy vehicles in the future because of the fluctuation of sales volume in the short term. New energy vehicles still have great development potential in the future. " Chen Shihua said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter. According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of passenger cars, according to the current demand, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2020 is about 1.6 million, of which the sales volume of passenger vehicles is about 1.35 million. In view of this, to achieve the goal of 2 million new energy vehicles by 2020, we need not only determination, but also concerted efforts of policy and market. It is expected to promote the sales of new energy vehicles in 2020. "Some joint ventures will achieve the minimum cost by purchasing some new energy credits in a short period of time. However, with the reduction of the supply-demand ratio of credits and the tightening of fuel consumption laws and regulations, the price of credits will tend to rise. More enterprises will take the opportunity to realize the transformation of new energy and take their own path of compliance development." Cui said. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology is taking the lead in preparing the new energy vehicle development plan (2021-2035). After the withdrawal of financial subsidies, new energy vehicles will still be encouraged and supported by the government in many aspects, such as infrastructure construction. In the long run, China's new energy vehicles have a bright future. But at present, most Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises are facing huge survival pressure. "The decline of new energy vehicles is a good opportunity to reflect on the industry. How much of the development of new energy comes from the needs of consumers, how much is the needs digested through travel, and a comprehensive reflection on the whole cost and the application of charging facilities. It is conducive to the next development of the industry. " Chen Shihua told reporters. Before that, many Chinese independent brands seized the market opportunity, and the development of new energy vehicles was in the forefront of the world. Among them, it has won the global new energy vehicle sales champion for four consecutive years, and also won the global pure electric vehicle sales champion in 2017. However, judging from the current trend, this year's global sales of new energy vehicles will be won by. Due to the hot sales of model 3, Tesla delivered 255200 vehicles in the first three quarters, far exceeding the two leading enterprises in China. According to the sales quick reports released by BYD (002594. SZ) and BAIC bluevale (600733. SH), both companies have suffered "Waterloo" in sales recently. In October this year, BYD sold 12600 new energy vehicles, down 55% year on year, of which passenger vehicle sales fell 41.5% to 7588. In the first 10 months, BYD sold 205200 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 19.93%. The sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 131200, up 96.15% year on year. BYD's new energy vehicle sales have declined for four consecutive months, and the decline has gradually expanded. BAIC new energy sold only 8601 vehicles in October, down 69.2% year on year. This also caused the annual growth rate of BAIC new energy to change from positive to negative temporarily, and the sales volume of BAIC new energy fell by 2.42% to 107000 vehicles in the first October. With only the last two months left, the sales target of 220000 vehicles for the whole year has not reached more than half. This goal is almost impossible to achieve. If sales do not improve in the next two months, BAIC new energy's sales this year may even be lower than last year's 158000. How to cross the barrier of subsidy decline has become a common problem for China's new energy vehicle enterprises. In addition, driven by the double credit policy, the joint venture new energy vehicles should start to be put on the market in 2020. Tesla's "catfish effect" will promote the electric vehicle market to form a new pattern and form a fully competitive situation. Under the new competitive environment and policy guidance, there is great potential to shift and speed up the new energy vehicles in 2020, but the challenges faced by China's new energy vehicle enterprises will also intensify. Where are the opportunities for local new energy enterprises that occupy the first mover advantage? At present, in the mainstream market, it is difficult for new energy vehicles to compete with fuel vehicles in terms of cost, so it is more critical for new energy vehicle enterprises to find their right positioning. "Tesla's competitors are fuel vehicles, and premium vehicles are less affected by subsidies. China's new energy vehicles still need to go "high". Recently, a car company launched a 600km long electric vehicle to challenge Tesla. In addition, many small models with short endurance mileage also have certain market potential, which can meet the needs of some specific groups for urban commuting and other scenarios. " Xu Haidong finally said.