TU-TESL

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If we want to use one word to describe the past 2019, the word "difficult" has a full sense of existence. According to the data of China Federation of passenger cars, the total sales of passenger car market in 2019 was 21.0778 million, down 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, the new energy market, which has always been advancing rapidly, experienced the first decline, with the total sales of 1.206 million, down 4% year-on-year compared with 2018. Especially after the second half of the year, the new energy vehicle market has experienced the pain which must be experienced when it changes from policy orientation to demand orientation. What will the new energy vehicle market face in 2020. May as well, let's first comb a few keywords together to see! First of all, the market feedback is not ideal in 2019 when the comprehensive decline of subsidy is 70%. The arrival of post subsidy era also makes everyone more alert. In addition to the risk of some brands disappearing, the overall new energy vehicle market downturn is inevitable. It can also be seen from the sales data of new energy vehicles in each month of 2019 that after the decline of subsidies in June 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased significantly year on year. However, it is interesting to note that after three months of small-scale shocks in July, August and September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing on a month on month basis. In the same way, it happened before and after the implementation of the new subsidy policy in 2018. If the history will repeat, the current downward trend of the new energy vehicle market does not need to worry too much. However, things are going on It may not be that simple. Figure: in 2019, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China took the December with the largest growth rate as an example. The total sales volume of new energy vehicles in that month was 137000. However, there is an important feature among the top several vehicles, that is, they are very suitable for online car Hailing, especially after the policy has been clearly stated that only electric vehicles are accepted for online car hailing, the sales volume of some new energy vehicles has exploded Maybe it doesn't mean that the demand of ordinary consumers for new energy vehicles is increasing, nor that the new energy market has completed the transformation to demand led. Of course, there are still favorable policies. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the forum of China electric vehicle 100 people's Congress (2020), that before July 1, 2020, the subsidy nature of new energy vehicles will remain relatively stable and will not decline significantly, which gives the current market a buffer time and space and gives the industry the opportunity to make the right response. At the same time, the vice chairman of the CPPCC also proposed at the meeting that in the process of promoting the entry of new energy vehicles into the city, we should build a good market environment for new energy vehicles, optimize the environment for the purchase and use of new energy vehicles in the field of public services, actively stabilize the expectations for the development of new energy vehicles, increase investment in innovation, build a common technology platform integrating production, learning and research, and promote Substantial cooperation between enterprises and multinational enterprises will further promote the international development of new energy vehicles in China. In 2020, we may not be able to achieve a significant increase in sales volume against the trend, but after 2020, we may see a successful new energy market transformation, further to the target of new energy vehicle sales accounting for 25% of total passenger vehicle sales in 2025. 2. Another thing that will have a significant impact on the industry in 2020 is the new release. At the forum of China electric vehicle 100 people's Congress, the minister also said that the double point policy will be officially released in the near future. Although the specific policy changes are not clear at present, we can see some clues through the double point policy draft issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology of China in September last year. Figure: one of the biggest changes in the adjustment of new energy passenger vehicle model integral calculation method is that the new policy may split the new energy vehicle integral and traditional fuel vehicle integral. Once implemented, this change means that vehicle enterprises not only need to maintain technological innovation and improve production in the new energy field, but also need to further reduce the fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles. In the past, they relied on The method of sharing double integral pressure for electric vehicles will no longer work in 2020. Another change is the addition of the concept of "low fuel consumption passenger vehicles". The so-called low fuel consumption passenger car is simply "product fuel consumption < (corresponding model standard fuel consumption x enterprise average fuel consumption requirements of the year)", and when calculating the new energy vehicle integral standard value of a passenger car enterprise in the year (new energy vehicle integral standard value = enterprise traditional vehicle output x annual integral percentage), the low fuel consumption fuel vehicle can be calculated as 0.5 times of its production or quantity In other words, the higher the proportion of the output of low fuel vehicles to the total output, the lower the new energy vehicle score of the enterprise, which is an incentive policy to encourage vehicle enterprises to develop passenger cars with lower fuel consumption. All kinds of signs show that although the policy is gradually tightened, the double points policy also urges the car companies to focus more on the production and sale of new energy and low fuel consumption traditional fuel vehicles. If the above policies are finally implemented, it is not hard to imagine that the main theme in 2020 will still be energy conservation and emission reduction. Even though there are some favorable policies, the overall downward trend of the new energy market has become an unavoidable problem in the short term. In order to survive in the crisis, the industry will inevitably face reshuffle and reorganization. Among them, the difficulties that vehicle enterprises and power battery enterprises will face may be the most severe. For some of the vehicle enterprises that mainly focus on A00 and A0 new energy vehicles, their products will no longer meet the subsidy requirements, that is to say, they need to do not rely on subsidies at all and can achieve profits, so that they can remain invincible in the next competition. For the new forces of car building, the problems they have to face are more complicated. As far as most of the new car building forces are concerned, they haven't realized the single car profit yet, and this way of selling one car and paying for one car also makes large-scale delivery become a burden. Delivery means loss, which means that they need to refinance. In the current environment of financing, the delivery capacity is one of the important factors that the capital market sees. In such a cycle, the new force of car building needs a new model to break the deadlock, at least to activate the cash flow to support their continued delivery, so as to have the possibility of refinancing. As for the traditional vehicle enterprises, it is necessary to further increase the production and marketing of new energy models. If some vehicle enterprises mainly focus on plug-in hybrid or even non plug-in hybrid, if they still do nothing, after the implementation of the new double integral policy in 2020, they may become a large integral demand household, and directly connect the money to friends, which is what no one is willing to do. In the aspect of power battery, it will also receive the influence of policies and subsidies. When the high monomer specific energy (usually called energy density by mistake) is not supported by subsidies, the manufacturer will face a difficult choice. On the one hand, the demand for high endurance of electric vehicles will make the vehicle enterprises need more batteries with high specific energy. On the other hand, the relatively high cost of ternary lithium battery will also make Some people balked. It can be said that the power battery market in 2020 will also usher in a larger scale of reshuffle under the more fierce competition. Since the industry trend is not very clear, "newspaper group heating" may be a good choice. To plan the limited resources of each company as a whole is the best plan for everyone to make things at a relatively low cost, especially in today's difficult financing era. Cooperation can even achieve mass production of a new model. Without any accident, in 2020, we can see the mass production delivery of m-byte of byton, and its way to achieve mass production is to cooperate with. After FAW's investment of about 260 million US dollars, the relationship between Baiteng automobile and FAW is getting closer and closer. First, it has reached strategic cooperation in platform technology, investment and equity, parts procurement and other aspects. Then, Baiteng successfully obtained the production qualification of FAW Huali automobile at a price of 1 yuan. Figure: as a result, we have seen the rapid construction of byton m-btye in Nanjing factory, and the m-byte mass production model which is highly similar to the concept car has arrived at the same time. Without any accident, it will gradually become a common thing to see the first car on the street with the center console covered with screens in 2020. Another cooperation, not too high attention, but directly determines the life and death of a brand. On December 25 last year, the 35th executive meeting of the people's Government of Wuxing district held that "the plan for the acquisition of land for the Ranger automobile industry project and the disposal of projects under construction by the city investment group is generally feasible." As soon as the news came out, many people thought that it was a signal that the Ranger car was about to stop, and it would be the first "down" new force of car building. Figure: shortly after Ranger x, Ranger auto responded that the acquisition originated from the major cooperation and negotiation with the same industry's vehicle enterprises. The purpose of the acquisition is to change the existing assets into the agent construction cooperation, and solve the long-standing production qualification problem of Ranger auto through the way of OEM. This acquisition does not mean the end of the Ranger car, on the contrary, it will bring new possibilities for the Ranger car. However, in the face of the current situation that the peers have already delivered on a large scale, the Ranger car needs new ideas to get ahead. From the perspective of the current situation of "huddle heating", although the general environment is not clear, we are confident. One of the ways to inject strength into the market is to launch new products. Judging from your plan, there should be a lot of strong products in the next year. The closest thing to us should be the new energy market that is currently swept by strong winds, as well as the model y, which will be mass produced in the summer of 2020. 70% of parts and model 3 share the same advantages in mass production process and capacity climbing. Now Tesla Model 3 has begun to harvest at the starting price of less than 300000 after subsidy. In the future, the price advantages of domestic model y will further impact on its own brand. Image: Tesla Model y I think someone should be ready. At the end of last year, NiO day released its third product in accordance with the Convention. It was also a new car that was compared with Tesla Model y as soon as it was released, ec6. The first feeling of this highly similar vehicle to ES6 is that it should do better in cost control, and it's worth noting that this time, we didn't directly announce the price, so we thought we were going to wait for the model After the price of Y is announced, we can find an advantageous price range. This is the first time that both of them are on the same level in product positioning and pricing. The battle between the high and the low becomes more important. Figure: in addition to this, another brand with inextricably linked to Tesla also has a new car to be delivered in mass production in 2020, but its operation is a bit of misplaced benchmarking. Xiaopeng P7, a large and medium-sized car with a wheelbase of more than 2.9 meters, is expected to sell at a lower price than the Tesla Model 3, and Xiaopeng is ready for what Tesla is good at. Photo: 11 visual sensors are distributed around Xiaopeng P7, three more than Tesla, plus many Tesla autopilot engineers sent out before. The hard power of this P7 may really make it one of Tesla's competent rivals. To be sure, these three