TU-TESL

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2019 is coming to an end. At present, the decline of the car market has narrowed, but it still hasn't stopped. On December 9, the national passenger vehicle market information joint meeting (hereinafter referred to as "the joint meeting") released the production and sales data of passenger vehicles in November. Data shows that in November this year, the sales volume of generalized passenger vehicles was 1966200, down 4.2% year on year. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of generalized passenger vehicles was 18.8715 million, down 7.9% year on year. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation, said the retail market had not improved more than expected. "We have always thought that the market will be V-shaped this year, and the sales volume in the second half of this year may increase year-on-year, because last year started to decline from June and July, but we didn't expect that this September and October are still declining, which changed our expectations." Chen Hao, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger car company, said in an interview with the media last month. From the perspective of the enterprises that have released the sales data of the previous November, the auto groups including SAIC Group (600104. SH) can hardly achieve the sales target at the beginning of this year. With the downward exploration of luxury car market, in addition to the second-line joint venture being squeezed, the market of the first-line joint venture brands including SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors is also affected. SAIC Volkswagen is afraid to retain the sales champion this year, while SAIC General Motors' sales fell nearly 18% in the first November, which also makes it face unprecedented pressure in 10 years. SAIC Group, which ranks the first in terms of sales volume, is estimated to be unable to achieve its sales volume target this year. Its November production and sales report shows that in November, the group's sales volume was 582000 vehicles, down 9.6% year-on-year; from January to November, the group's cumulative sales volume was 5.54 million vehicles, down 13.3% year-on-year. SAIC's decline in the first 10 months was 13.7%, while that in November narrowed. SAIC GM and SAIC GM Wuling have become the hardest hit areas for SAIC's sales to fall. In the first 11 months, SAIC GM's sales volume was 1.4756 million vehicles, down 17.94% year on year. SAIC GM Wuling decreased by 21.75% to 1.4372 million vehicles on a year-on-year basis; SAIC passenger vehicles decreased by 5.74% to 595800 vehicles on a year-on-year basis; SAIC Volkswagen's sales volume in the previous November was 1.7677 million vehicles, down 6.72% on a year-on-year basis. The main reason for the decline of SAIC GM Wuling market is that the low-end entry-level market is squeezed, and it is difficult to break through smoothly in the upward breakthrough. Therefore, SAIC GM Wuling launched the new Baojun brand, hoping to cut into the young consumer groups with the help of intelligent breakthrough. In an interview with the first financial reporter, Wang Yongqing, general manager of SAIC General Motors, said that the market performance of SAIC general motors this year was due to the pessimism of the overall environment of the car market on the one hand, and on the other hand because the products of several brands of SAIC General Motors entered the renewal cycle. He expects SAIC GM to pick up after product switching next year. SAIC Group is the only one that keeps a positive growth among several major passenger vehicle sectors, with sales volume of 133200 vehicles in the first November, up 17.93% year-on-year. The accumulated sales volume of SAIC Maxus in the first 11 months reached 104600, an increase of 38.97% year on year. With the launch of Datong D90 Pro released by Guangzhou auto show, the sales volume of SAIC Maxus still has a certain growth space. However, on the whole, SAIC Maxus is also difficult to achieve the sales target of 180000 vehicles proposed at the beginning of the year. Although SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC passenger cars have won the market, the market of SAIC Volkswagen in the first 10 months of this year has also been surpassed. This year, it is difficult to defend the annual sales champion, and there will be some pressure to break through the annual sales of 2 million vehicles. From the perspective of sales volume in the previous October, SAIC GM has been far away from the former two, and the gap between the two has been widened to about 300000. At the beginning of this year, SAIC Group proposed to "strive to achieve the sales of 7.1 million vehicles", and at the time of the semi annual report, SAIC had reduced this number to 6.5 million vehicles, but as of November, SAIC Group had only completed 85% of the adjusted target sales volume, which is still nearly 1 million vehicles away from the standard. In the face of the overall downturn in the car market, even SAIC Group, as the sales champion, is hard to be independent. Last year, it has failed to meet the standards. In 2018, SAIC's annual sales volume was 7.0517 million vehicles, which did not reach the sales target of 7.2 million vehicles set at the beginning of adulthood. SAIC Group's sales decline in the cold winter of the automobile market is a vane, even leading enterprises are hard to resist the cold winter of the market, and the overall performance of other automobile enterprises is also hard to be optimistic. From the perspective of the enterprises that have disclosed sales data at present, the automobile enterprises that are unable to achieve the goal are more mainstream. Dongfeng Group, ranking second for many years, set the sales target at the work meeting in January this year: it will reach 4 million vehicles and challenge 4.1 million vehicles. In the first 11 months of this year, Dongfeng Group's cumulative sales volume was 3.248 million vehicles, which was 752000 vehicles less than the sales target, and the target completion rate was only 81.2%. Like all major domestic automobile groups, the self owned brand is also the short board of Dongfeng Group. Although the three self owned brands of Dongfeng Group and Dongfeng scenery all achieved more than 20% growth in November, the total sales volume of the three brands is only 58000, and the sales volume of a single brand is very thin. At present, the proportion of independent brands in the overall sales volume of Dongfeng Group is only 14.8%, and the joint venture brand is still an important support of Dongfeng Group. Like Dongfeng Group, GAC group still relies on joint venture brands to support its sales volume. At the beginning of the year, it set its sales target of 2.225 million vehicles in 2019, but from January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 1.8761 million vehicles, down 4.34% year-on-year, only 85% of the target sales volume was achieved. The sales volume of its two major Japanese joint ventures, Honda and Toyota, GAC, is still relatively stable, but the sales volume of GAC passenger vehicles is relatively stable It is an important reason for the sales volume of GAC. In 2019, GAC passenger vehicles will hit the annual sales target of 600000 vehicles, but the actual sales volume in the first November was 345000 vehicles, down 28.8% year-on-year, and the target achievement rate was only 57.5%. The situation of automobiles is different, mainly affected by the joint venture brand Changan Ford. In the first 11 months, the accumulated sales of new cars reached 1979600, down about 40% year on year. According to the previous plan, the annual sales target of Chang'an is 2.46 million vehicles, and the target completion rate in the first November is 80.5%. Among the top five self owned brands last year, this year's automobile is expected to reach the annual target. In the first 11 months of this year, Geely sold 1231500 new cars, 91% of the annual sales target of 1.36 million. However, it is worth noting that 1.36 million vehicles are the annual target of Geely after being lowered in the middle of the year. If the target of 1.51 million vehicles is met at the beginning of the year, Geely will not be able to meet the target. According to the industry terminal discount data monitored by Guosheng automobile research group, Geely Automobile has been increasing its discount since late August, with an average discount rate of 9.93% in November. To a certain extent, the profit has played a role. The sales volume of main models has been improving, driving the overall sales volume of Geely Automobile. The company also impacted its sales target this year by giving profits. From January to November of this year, the sales volume of great wall motor was 954300. There was little chance for it to reach the target of 1.2 million vehicles at the beginning of this year. However, Great Wall Motor also lowered its target to 1.07 million vehicles in the middle of this year. It was not difficult to reach the new target. In 2019, it was very radical and set an annual sales target of 650000 vehicles, nearly 30% higher than the total sales of 500000 vehicles in 2018. But by November, BYD had only achieved 418000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, which basically failed to meet the standard. SAIC's sales volume of passenger vehicles exceeded 700000 last year, and this year's target is the same as last year's, but at present, there is still a gap of 100000 vehicles from last year, and the challenge is still not small for the market performance of 60000 vehicles per month. From January to January, 387000 new cars were sold, down 10.29% year on year. Not only this year's car market is sluggish, the industry is still generally pessimistic about the market in 2020, especially for second-line joint ventures and independent brands. The shrinking entry-level market may make the market more difficult next year. According to the analysis of user intention data in the past 12 months, from December 2018 to November this year, the proportion of user intention in price areas below 120000 decreased by 5.9%, and the demand for low price market shrank significantly; the proportion of user intention in price areas between 120000 and 200000 increased by 0.8%, and the market heat kept a small growth; the proportion of user intention in price areas above 200000 increased by 5.5%, of which the most significant increase was in price areas between 300000 and 500000 。 In the future, with the coming of consumption upgrading and automobile replacement cycle, it will further benefit the development of medium and high-end market. In addition, the terminal traffic insurance data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the CR10 of Chinese auto enterprises (the proportion of the largest sum of 10 items) reached 80%, while in 2016 it was less than 70%. In two or three years, it increased by 10%, the market concentration increased, the market dividend enjoyed by marginal auto enterprises was smaller and smaller, and the market of some mainstream brands also faced challenges.