TU-TESL

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For the past nine silver ten, I believe many people hold some expectations to see if the Chinese market can rebound from the bottom in this depressed environment. However, not long ago, the Federation of passenger cars officially released the sales data of China's automobile market in October 2019. From the sales data in October, it can be seen that the peak season of sales has a certain stimulus to the automobile market. In October, a total of 1843406 narrow sense passenger cars were sold, an increase of 3.5% on a month on month basis. From the perspective of development trend, the automobile market did recover in October. However, compared with last year, the sales volume of domestic automobile market in October is still not optimistic. The total sales volume of domestic automobile in October is 5.7% lower than that of last year, and this is the sales volume fatigue shown by the slowing down of the car enterprises in September. The car enterprises are eager to accumulate energy to impact October, in exchange for the cold market performance. The continuous cold market performance will inevitably make car companies panic, especially for the dealers in the terminal, which is undoubtedly the gradual demise of the boiled frog, and the huge group is the forerunner. And car companies also understand this truth. Since the market response is sluggish, it can only reduce the pressure from the level of car companies. Shrinking the wholesale volume is the most direct and effective way. Based on the fact that September is the first peak month of the golden nine silver ten, in order to cope with the peak season of sales, automobile enterprises appropriately increased the wholesale volume. In September, the total volume of domestic automobile wholesale increased by 17.2% month on month, but decreased by 6% year on year. In October, the domestic automobile wholesale volume only increased by 0.2% month on month, and decreased by 5.9% year on year. It can be seen that automobile enterprises are further slowing down the volume of Automobile wholesale, while dealers are also in view of the market environment Indent quantity. If there is no accident, after the end of the golden nine silver ten peak season, the wholesale volume of the automobile market will further shrink, reducing the dealers' capital to ensure the operation ability. When the wholesale volume of the market shrinks, what is also affected is the upstream industry chain, that is, the auto parts supplier. Since the production capacity shrinks, the supplier's spare parts shipments are also seriously affected. In August this year, it was reported that the capital chain problem of Guowei technology, a supplier of automobile engine factory in Zhejiang Province, was basically in a state of shutdown, and it was also involved in bankruptcy rumors, affecting the supply of spare parts of more than ten engine factories. In serious cases, it may also lead to the shutdown of the engine factory. Looking back on the past, Guowei technology has had a brilliant period. Its products, such as automobile combination switch, steering lock, ignition lock, whole car lock cylinder, central junction box assembly, etc., provide supporting services for more than 20 large and medium-sized automobile main engine factories at home and abroad, and the supporting share once maintained at more than 80%. With the continuous contraction of Automobile wholesale volume, some of the pressure released by dealers will be transferred to suppliers. The continuous contraction will mean increased pressure, which will inevitably lead to bankruptcy in the end, especially for a large number of domestic auto parts suppliers, which is undoubtedly another disaster. The market downturn not only poses a great threat to suppliers and dealers, but also has a lot of hidden dangers for automobile manufacturers. When the wholesale volume shrinks, it means that the production capacity will decline, and automobile manufacturers will face more and more idle production capacity and overflowing employees. Therefore, we have to consider that when the wholesale volume of automobiles continues to shrink to a certain volume, it will usher in the possibility of large layoffs and factory closures. In the early years when the domestic market is booming, major automobile enterprises have built factories in China to increase production capacity, but now they are facing the dilemma of closure, and will face severe challenges in capital investment and personnel management. Some manufacturers with insufficient strength have been under pressure to idle their factories and face bankruptcy. Based on the downturn of domestic environment, automobile enterprises have come up with another way, that is, domestic sales to export sales, especially in Asia, India, Africa and other markets. Many Chinese automobile brands began to dump cars to these countries, which could occupy the market first, and then further consume the domestic factory capacity to maintain a relatively balanced state. For example, the establishment of factories in Russia, the transportation of new cars to other auto enterprises in the early years, etc. by haver ensure the normal operation of auto enterprises from the side, but the premise is that the export speed should be able to balance the growing idle capacity in China, otherwise the auto enterprises will also face an awkward situation. The relationship among suppliers, automobile enterprises and dealers is cold and toothless. No matter which link has problems, it will affect the development of the other two. Now, in order to balance the business environment of dealers, the continuous contraction of wholesale volume can effectively reduce the business pressure of dealers in a short period of time, but it will also have a great impact on the whole production and sales for a long time. Dealers have overstocked spare parts, idle production capacity of automobile enterprises is too large, resulting in factory closure and a large number of layoffs. Dealers will eventually face no one to buy a car When there was no car to sell.