TU-TESL

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"At present, Alita has entered bankruptcy custody, wodgina has entered maintenance, MT cattlin is expected to reduce production, Altura's cash flow is tight, and it is a high probability event that the production of lithium concentrate in Western Australia in 2019 is significantly lower than expected. Recently, Ganfeng lithium (002460) expressed its views on the recent reduction of production and shutdown of lithium concentrate in Australia during the investor research activities. Ganfeng lithium believes that with the fall of lithium price, high-cost mines put into operation in 2017-2019 will be hit first. Since the third quarter of 2019, some mining enterprises have been in business difficulties, and the uncertainty of lithium resource supply in Australia has increased significantly. Secondly, in terms of the price of lithium salt, there is doubt in the industry. Now the price of domestic lithium carbonate includes tax of 58000 yuan. Will the cost line of Australian concentrate continue to fall to less than 500 dollars, so that the market can continue to clear up? Is there any possibility of a final drop. Ganfeng lithium believes that the market is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can support such a large amount. It mainly depends on its marginal cost. If the market is not good, it will continue to produce if it is not lower than its marginal cost. Before Pilbara did feasibility study, the cost was less than $400. Now he has stopped production for more than $550, mainly because of technology and market. Now the market is not good, so he simply stopped to do technical transformation. As a current support position, the price of $500 may fall down depending on the market volume. After Q4, the upstream will gradually enter the stage of active de stocking. If the market demand increases in the last year and next year, the price of $500 may be a repeatedly fluctuating price. The following is the specific research record: in the current market situation, it may be difficult for some newly developed lithium projects to be financed in the market and approved by the board of directors, which is also a good thing for the market and helps to balance the supply and demand of the whole market. For manufacturers like Pilbara, their downstream is mainly in China, and they mainly depend on the downstream demand of China and the situation of global electric vehicles. At present, the stock of spodumene in the market is still relatively high. For example, due to last year's safety accident in South Korea, some lithium carbonate stocks have been left there. It will take a little time for the stock to be digested. How long will it take depends on the recovery of demand. 3-6 months is still needed. The company conducts production according to the demand of downstream customers. At present, the demand for lithium hydroxide is relatively large and the supply is relatively tight. Demand is expected to remain at this level or even higher next year. In the normal and orderly progress of the 10000 ton lithium salt reconstruction and expansion project, the capacity construction scale of the project has increased from 25000 ton battery grade lithium hydroxide annually to 50000 ton battery grade lithium hydroxide annually; in terms of Salt Lake, the construction of caucari olaroz project in Argentina is relatively large, which is estimated to reach at least 40000 tons, and it is expected to be put into operation next year. Currently, the production plan is under discussion. The efficiency of extracting lithium from mica is low, and the waste residue is easy to cause environmental problems; the investment amount of extracting lithium from domestic salt lakes is large, and the quality of domestic salt lakes is not as good as that of South American salt lakes. At present, the company's underwriting agreement with Australia mine is normally implemented. In 2019, most of Ganfeng concentrate comes from rim. Because the quality of Pilbara's concentrate fails to meet the company's requirements, the company's procurement volume is not large. Next year, the company's supply of ore materials is still dominated by rim, which is not affected by the reduction of production and shutdown of Australian mineral resources. Germany's policy to increase subsidies for electric vehicles exceeded market expectations, which also reflected the firm determination of European electrification. The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with German BMW and German Volkswagen, and the growth of new energy vehicles in Europe is bound to have a positive impact on the company in the future. The company's solid-state battery research and development work has been steadily and normally promoted. At present, it is actively engaged in docking and sample test with downstream vehicle enterprises. The pilot production line is now in the pilot production stage, and it is expected to be put into production soon. Battery recycling is the market started in recent years. Retired batteries are relatively small. The scale of recycling is relatively small at present, and will be relatively large in the next 5-8 years. It's not common for environmental protection enterprises to do it. They have strong professionalism.