TU-TESL

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According to a report by the German car research center (car), sales of cars and sport utility vehicles () will decline again by 2020, but this should mark the end of the decline in sales since 2017, Forbes reported. Next year, car sales in Germany and the United States will fall by 4% and 3% respectively, but Chinese car sales will drop by a modest 1.5% to 20.4 million. Car predicts that the global auto market will bottom out in 2020, but since then China will become the supporting force for the growth of the global auto market. Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, said the global economy seemed set to resume growth in early 2020, but would be driven by emerging markets rather than Western markets. "Trade tensions and monetary policy eased for the first time in seven quarters at the same time, which will boost global economic growth from the first quarter of 2020. The recovery will be driven more by emerging markets, as the US is clearly in the late stages of the economic cycle. " However, there are also institutions with different views on this prediction. Fitch Ratings forecasts that global car sales are expected to decline by about 3.1 million vehicles in 2019, a sharper decline than the 2008 financial crisis, and will not rebound in 2020, with the downturn continuing into 2021. S & P global ratings said there would be no growth in global car sales by 2020, which is expected to continue into 2021. "We expect a series of factors, such as fierce industry competition, trade friction, huge electrification production and R & D costs, and high restructuring costs, will put pressure on the profit margin of automobile manufacturers." Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the German automotive research center, said the decline in global sales was due to tariffs and customs issues, but that situation was coming to an end. Car expects global sales to fall 5% in 2019 to 78.8 million vehicles and to a minimum of 78 million in 2020. "It will take time to recover from tariff friction," dudenheffer said. Therefore, 2020 will be a transitional year. The good news is that by 2020, the sales downturn will hit the bottom, and then China will become a supporting force for the growth of the global automobile market. " According to the German automobile research center, China's automobile sales will drop from 24.2 million in 2017 to 20.7 million in 2019, reaching the bottom in 2020, reaching 20.4 million, and then accelerating to 25.4 million in 2025. By 2020, U.S. car sales will fall 3% to 16.4 million, while German sales will fall 4% to 3.4 million. However, dudenheffer said, "the new growth is characterized by a shift to electric vehicles. Due to the highly automated production of batteries and electric vehicles, the growth process of sales volume in the next few years will also cause more unemployment caused by the electric transformation. " In the next few years, the world's major automakers will cut more than 80000 jobs as a result of the wave of electrification, according to Bloomberg. By 2022, it is planned to cut 12500 jobs worldwide and cut 10% of its production capacity from 7.2 million to 6.6 million vehicles. About 17000 jobs are being cut, 12000 of which will be in Europe. S & P global said there are still many big risks, even if its forecast for the global economic recovery to 2021 is more conservative. In 2020 and 2021, the new EU CO2 emission rules will come into force, tighten again in 2025, and then achieve the final leap in 2030. Some observers believe this could seriously hurt the bottom line of Europe's weaker carmakers. The forecast that Chinese sales will resume the upward trend will bring great relief to German manufacturers. Previously, Germany's three major brands,, have announced layoffs due to huge investment in electrification to save costs. Audi will cut 9500 jobs by 2025, about one tenth of the company's workforce; Daimler plans to cut more than 10000 jobs globally by the end of 2022, equivalent to 3.3% of its global workforce. BMW plans to cut 5000 to 6000 jobs by 2022, according to multi-party German media, although it did not explicitly announce specific layoffs. This means that the three giants of German automobile industry will cut about 25000 jobs this year. "In recent years, 40% of the German auto industry's turnover has come from China," said dudenheffer. President Trump's tariff war has done considerable damage to the German auto industry, even though no tariffs have been imposed on cars from Europe to the United States. "