TU-TESL

• 22

At the end of the year, it has become the practice of China Automobile Industry Association to release the forecast of the next year's automobile market, and it is also one of the wind vane that the whole industry pays close attention to. On December 12, Xu Haidong, assistant to the Secretary General of the China Automobile Industry Association, released a forecast for China's automobile market in 2020 at the "2020 China automobile market development forecast summit" hosted by the China Automobile Industry Association: the annual sales of 25.31 million vehicles, down 2% year on year. Since 2018, automobile demand has declined sharply, showing the characteristics of both structural and gross. With half a month left in 2019, CAAC predicts that the annual automobile sales will decline by 8%. The decline in sales will not only affect the enterprise's revenue, but also the profit. In terms of the economic benefits of the automobile industry for 1-10 years, the operating revenue of the whole industry decreased by 3.16%, and the total profit decreased to 14.29%. So how do we see the trend of the car market in the next year? According to Xu Haidong, there are three key factors affecting 2020 auto market. First, China's GDP is still growing at a high speed, but the growth rate is slowing down. In 2019, China's GDP growth rate continued to decline in the quarter, 6.4%, 6.2% and 6.0% respectively, which may be lower than the target of 6.3% in the whole year. In 2020, there is no obvious strong economic growth trend, and GDP growth may decline again. On the spot of the meeting, several institutions gave forecasts of GDP growth of about 6% next year. Second, downward pressure on the economy has led to the loss of employment and income of the bottom consumers. Since 2018, the growth rate of per capita income and expenditure has declined significantly, which will lead to lower expectation of future income and more cautious consumption. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, the per capita disposable income of the whole country increased by 8.7% year on year, but the per capita disposable income growth of the low-income groups (including the middle, lower middle and low-income groups) decreased from 11.8% in 2014 to 4% in 2018, which will certainly have an impact on the growth of automobile sales, and the first impact is mainly on the low-end products Chinese brand. Finally, the continuous fermentation of Sino US economic and trade frictions mainly affects the export and investment of China's complete vehicles and parts. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, believes that the direct impact on the sales of new cars is 1-2%. But in a broad sense, according to trump's statement that "China's economic and trade frictions with the United States have affected 5 million jobs in China", if one third of the people give up buying cars as a result, the impact on new car sales will be more than 1 million, and the impact cannot be underestimated. In addition, income instability, P2P explosion, capacity reduction, "blue sky defense" and shantytown reconstruction caused by returning home and entrepreneurship will affect automobile consumption to varying degrees. At the conference, and IHS also released a forecast for China's car market in 2020. Google believes that the overall car market will decline by 6.6%, and IHS is optimistic that passenger cars will grow by 0.59%. So in the medium and long term, where will China's car market go? Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, gave a more optimistic forecast. He believed that China's automobile market is in the stage of transition from the medium high speed growth stage to the medium low speed growth stage, and the growth rate of car ownership per thousand people dropped naturally from about 12% to about 5%. However, the current car sales volume is still in the potential growth range of 4% - 5%. This year, some factors will gradually weaken, and the decline will gradually narrow. By 2028, the total car ownership in China will be close to 410 million, with about 288 cars per thousand people. It is worth noting that the forecast does not take into account the innovation of transportation technology and business model. According to the calculation of the development research center of the State Council, by 2028, the sales volume of new cars reduced due to shared travel will be about 40 million. Even so, according to the current development speed, China's total car ownership is expected to reach 270 million next year, which will surpass the United States to become the largest car ownership country in the world.