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Editor's note: a famous country singer once sang in a song, "when you dress up and find that you have no destination, time will slow down." If or other German giants have heard this song, I'm afraid they will be more nervous. After all, the high-tech electric vehicles they have invested tens of billions of dollars to develop have not been surpassed, and may face the fate of no one in the near future. Among the traditional European giants, VW is the most interested in electric vehicles. They plan to increase the sales volume of BEV to a quarter of its global sales volume in 2025 and a further 40% in 2030. And although not as aggressive as Volkswagen, but also have their own plans for pure electric vehicles. Unfortunately, according to the prediction of experts, they may overestimate the real market performance of electric vehicles, and there are not so many cakes in the market for them. Ihsmarkit believes that by 2025, the market share of pure electric vehicles will reach 10.2%, and by 2030, it will be 14.8%. Lmcautomotive predicts that the share of pure electric vehicles will only climb to 9% in 2025 and accelerate to 17% in 2030. Ultima media gives 7.5% and 15% market share corresponding to two time points, while fitchsolutions macro research is more pessimistic. They think that only 7.3% share of pure electric vehicles will be available in 2028, and this is only limited to the European market. Clearly, market research institutions are not as optimistic as manufacturers. However, in this case, the manufacturers still choose to continue. PSA group, Renault and European branches in France have their own pure electric vehicle plans. For the giants, they may block themselves in a dead end just because the government's environmental laws and regulations force them to rush into the "fattening" market. After all, there are a large number of low-income Europeans who need to rely on cheap entry-level fuel vehicles to travel, and they will not pay for expensive electric vehicles as the enemy. Once the sales volume is poor, so many electric vehicle models will face the fate of sale at a discount, and then each manufacturer will have to pay a lot of "tuition fees". And don't forget, one of the reasons why we developed electric vehicles is to comply with environmental regulations. If the sales of electric vehicles don't go up, those really profitable large displacement models can't be put on the market. Behind the whips are the EU, which requires cars to cut fuel consumption to 57.4 mpg (4.1 liter per 100 km) by 2020 and 2021, respectively. By 2030, the EU's demand for fuel economy will further increase to 92 mpg. Such fuel consumption means that most of the vehicles on the market will be fully electric by 2030. Evercoreisi, an investment research firm, believes that if Europe's auto industry fails to meet increasingly stringent emission policies, its profit risk may soar to 33 billion euros (US $37 billion) due to various fines, about half of which will be spent on compliance. Earlier this year VW said production like up and polo would be too expensive by 2030. Up will increase its price by at least 3500 euros, selling directly to 14500 euros, while the more expensive Polo will increase its price by 4000 euros. What's more, this argument applies to all cars. This is good for the environment, but it may bring more terrible political crisis to the EU. Because you will realize that you can only take the bus to work, and in the name of saving the earth, you will be forced to change your way of life, which will be reviled by most people. Max Warburton, an analyst at Bernstein research, thinks there may be some signs in the market, but he still doesn't believe that electric cars will be unified. "Manufacturers are under so much regulatory pressure that they have to sell more electric cars in Europe. As the follow-up emission regulations continue to tighten, they will face even greater challenges. However, the problem is that electric vehicles are not the first choice for most users, because they are not only expensive, but also have inadequate infrastructure. Do end users have to cut meat and give up their fuel vehicles? Is that too pessimistic Warburton said. The power of the policy is always so strong. If the European Union forbids diesel vehicles from entering the city center, users will not have to turn to electric vehicles. The new electric vehicles that will be introduced next year will provide users with more attractive choices. Of course, the lack of charging facilities is a problem that must be solved. In addition, the poor residual value of electric vehicles when they are resold also makes many people headache, let alone the extremely expensive price when they are changed. "In 2019, the second-hand residual values of models like Renault Zoe, leaf and others have increased to some extent, but don't be too happy too early. They just changed from worthless to able to sell three melons and two dates. The actual residual values are still very ugly. But that's a good sign, at least that more people are buying electric cars now. " Warburton said. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, a professor at the German car research center, believes VW can definitely achieve its goals. "Id.3 looks great. It's priced at 24000 euros. There will be more models on this platform in the future." Dudenhoeffer said. Volkswagen claims that by 2022, it will launch 27 electric models on the basis of id.3, including those with VW logo and those belonging to Xiyate, Skoda and others. "Predictions like IHS market are problematic. They were wrong in the past, and now they underestimate the electric vehicle market. In the next 5-10 years, Volkswagen will have a good chance to become a real leader in the automotive industry, and electric vehicles are crucial to them. " Dudenhoeffer explains. Dudenhoeffer also felt that the price of batteries would be low enough and that small electric vehicles would be profitable by then. Professor Stefan bratzel, head of the German automobile management center, is not fully confident, although he also believes that the forecasts given by these market research institutions are too conservative, especially in 2030. "Will VW win 25% of the market by 2025? I'm afraid it's not easy to achieve this result, but the possibility of 15-20% is quite large. As for the charging network, it is more likely to mature in 2030. " Bratzel said. Bratzel pointed out that the German Green Party has been pushing for an increase in carbon tax, so the gasoline tax may increase, and the next year for diesel may shrink, which also pushed electric vehicles into the market to compete for cake. "Although tens of billions of dollars have been spent, the R & D, production and sales of electric vehicles may still be difficult to become the mainstream of the market, so the traditional internal combustion engine will continue to improve in the next decade to meet the tightening emission regulations. This also means that manufacturers still have to pay fines, and whether they can continue to invest in energy-saving and emission reduction technologies will be a question mark in the case of declining profits. " Daniel Harrison, an analyst at Ultima media, explains. Ultima media believes that by 2030, 40% of the world's cars and SUVs will still use internal combustion engines, which will make many legislators quite angry. Warburton of Bernstein research still believes that at some point in the future, users' demand for electric vehicles will suddenly ignite, saving vulnerable manufacturers. "In recent years, people's interest in electric vehicles has increased, as can be seen from search data and daily chat. Although the demand for electric vehicles is still uncertain, there are still good signs in the market. If enough users are willing to buy electric cars (at a high price), then the profits of the whole industry will not be squeezed into a piece of tissue paper. " Warburton said.